Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 191007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
407 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...A band of showers has
developed over Southeast Oregon this morning in response to an
upper level low pressure system along the California coast. This
band of light showers will remain over Southeast Oregon through
Thursday afternoon as the upper level low moves inland over
southern Nevada. Upper level winds will shift from the south-
southeast to the east this afternoon than north-northeast tonight
as the low continues east. This will allow moisture to reach
Southwest Idaho for showers mainly over the higher terrain this
evening. Breezy northerly winds develop behind the exiting system
across Southeast Oregon this afternoon and last through late this
evening. The upper level low exits the Great Basin Friday morning
with an upper level ridge developing quickly behind for warmer
and drier conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal
through Friday.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...Dry and mild
conditions persist into Sunday. There is better model agreement on
passage of an upper wave late Sun/Mon. Focus of precipitation
development with this system will be across southwest Idaho. A ridge
develops over the area Tuesday returning dry and mild conditions.
Forecast models diverge on how to handle the pattern evolution after
Tuesday. For now have kept forecast closer to the ECMWF which has
more run-to-run consistency and favors a drier and warmer forecast
for the area.


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Local MVFR possible across higher elevations
with areas mid-level ceilings and precipitation today. Snow levels 5-
6k feet MSL. Surface winds becoming N-NW 10-20 kts with gusts local
gusts to 30kts. The strongest winds will be across southeast Oregon.
Winds aloft are north 20-30 kts through 10k feet MSL today.





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