Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
314 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Shortwave ridging aloft is transitioning over western Minnesota,
with southwest diffluent flow in the mid-upper levels over the
Dakotas. An axis of subsident/dry air is in place over much of our
CWA. The next shortwave trough is currently near western Montana.

Tonight-Sunday: Main upper trough moves from Saskatchewan across
Manitoba Sunday, with increasing southerly flow keeping decent
moisture advection in place over our CWA. In this pattern the window
for large scale ascent is mainly limited to the later part of Sunday
afternoon, with weaker lift overspread the CWA early Sunday. We
should see snow increase in coverage relatively quickly, and models
are showing a strong signal on at least measurable snowfall. There
is a signal in model QPF and model frontogensis  for possible
banded precipitation embedded. There could also be enough instability
to support a narrowing of any bands that develop. Location of one or
more narrow bands of moderate to heavy snow is uncertain.

Most locations would tend to have 1-3", and only localized/narrow
areas exceeding this. Consensus of higher resolution guidance has
favored locations north of I-94 in North Dakota, however these types
of bands will be hard to anticipate with a level of confidence
necessary for advisory consideration at this range. Plan is to
message this with SPS (Special Weather Statement) and graphics for

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Banded snow event should be ending by sunset
Sun. There is likely to be a break in the action for a time Sun
night before the next wave affects us overnight into Mon. Examined
various ops models for ice probabilities and good agreement among
them for lower ice potential leads to FZRA chances mostly along and
southeast of a Baudette to Fargo line. Mon morning commute icing
impacts would be possible. By afternoon, warming boundary layer
temps should lead to mainly rain pcpn types, ending as some snow at
night. Weak high pressure to follow for the daylight hours on Tue.

Wed through Sat...

Northwest to zonal flow will dominate during this period. A series
of clippers would be the featured weather makers with Wed and Fri
the targeted times. On Wed with projected high temps above freezing
some periods of rain or mixed may occur. Colder air moving in behind
this system will drop temps to below (if not well) normal to end the
week into the weekend. Ensembles feature strong signals for a
significantly below average temp regime during this time as 850 mb
numbers fall to 15 to 20 below zero C.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Low stratus (700-1000ft) continues to linger near DVL, otherwise
the VFR conditions are prevailing across eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota. As snow (and possibly freezing drizzle)
overspread the region after midnight tonight and Sunday conditions
should decrease to MVFR/IFR once again. A narrow axis of heavier
snow may result in LIFR/VLIFR conditions in North Dakota, but
confidence in exact location is low, thus this was not included in
18Z TAFs. Southeast winds occasionally gusting 20-25 kt may also
aide in lowering vis during the period of snow due to blowing
snow, but again confidence in coverage/timing was too low to
include mention.




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