Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KMLB 210747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
347 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Cooler and Drying through Late Week...

Today and Tonight...Brisk winds will accompany the approaching
cold front this morning, which is nearing north central Florida
at this early hour. Considerably dryer air will follow frontal
passage with W/NW breezes pressing swd through the forecast area
by midday. Under sunny skies temperatures will only make it into
the L-M70s with 22 to 28 mph wind gusts during the afternoon.
Tonight expect gusty winds to abate with dusk and unseasonably
cool temperatures will quickly fall through the 50s to bottom out
in the L-M 40s south to Lake Okeechobee early Thursday under
cloud free skies.

Post frontal high pres ridge will dominate the lcl WX pattern into
the latter half of the week, generating a deep and brisk NWrly flow
thru the H100-H70 lyr. Cool/dry air advection pattern will result,
keeping PWat values btwn 0.25"-0.50" on Thu, and btwn 0.50"-0.75" on
Fri. Strong subsidence inversion thru the H85-H70 lyr will combine
with the dry air to put the lid on any meaningful precip chances,
while the northerly wind component keeps temps arnd 10F blo avg for
late March...aftn maxes in the M/U60s along the coast and L/M70s
interior, mrng mins in the U40/L50s along the coast and L/M40s

Warming trend thru the weekend as high pres pushes acrs the FL
peninsula into the W Atlc, allowing sfc/low lvl winds to veer to
S/SW. Temps recovering to near or slightly abv avg with aftn maxes
in the U70s/M80s...mrng mins in the M/U50s. Gradual increase in
moisture with the onshore flow, but with PWat values remaining
largely AOB 1.00". Lingering subsidence inversion as the trailing
ridge axis remains draped over central FL...fcst will remain dry.

Models hinting at a backdoor front pushing into the lcl Atlc early
next week, with H100-H70 winds shifting to N/NE and mean RH lvls
increasing to 70-80pct. Close proximity of the post frontal high
pres ridge will keep lcl airmass largely suppressed, limiting
overall atmospheric instability. N/NE flow regimes typically do not
result in high precip coverage for central FL, and what does dvlp is
usually in the form of low-topped shras.  Will go with slgt chc PoPs
on Mon, but any impact is expected to be limited.


VFR conds over the next 24 to 30H. SFC WND gusts of 23 to 28KT
will be possible FM 21/14Z through 21/23Z.


Today and Tonight...Gusty winds accompany and follow passage of
the cold front today. Winds above 20 kts over all the area with
gusts to gale force this morning and afternoon through around 4
PM over the outer waters north of the Cape. Uniform advisory conds
continue overnight with higher seas over the outer waters.

Thu-Thu Night...Winds/seas decreasing thru the day, but overall
boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous as high pressure
over the GOMex/Deep South generates a steady NW breeze, moderate to
fresh at daybreak, bcmg gentle to moderate by late aftn, contg
overnight. Seas 4-6FT over the shelf waters, 7-9FT in the Gulf
Stream thru late aftn, bcmg 3-5FT nearshore and 4-6FT offshore

Fri-Fri Night...Sfc/bndry lyr winds bcmg a light to gentle N/NW
breeze by midday as high pres approaches the FL peninsula. Seas 3-
4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore, subsiding to 2-3FT nearshore and 3-
4FT offshore overnight.

Sat-Sat Night...Hi pres building over the W Atlc will winds to shift
from a light to gentle N/NE breeze at daybreak to due east by
midday, S/SE thru late aftn, then S/SW overnight. Seas, by sunset
a 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT offshore.

Sun-Sun Night...Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze thru the day, bcmg
W/NW overnight as a backdoor frontal boundary works its way into the
lcl Atlc. Seas generally 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream. Slgt
chc of shras with the approaching front.


Today...Criteria for Red Flag issuance will be approached with
combination of wind and low humidity in the afternoon despite
yesterdays rainfall. A Warning was issued earlier for most of the
central and southern zones. More pronounced rainfall Tue should
preclude critical conditions from developing from Orange county
Northward today.

Diminishing winds on Thu with RH values falling blo 30pct
areawide, but fuel dryness ERC values appear too low to issue a
Fire WX Watch attm.


DAB  70  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  71  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  72  43  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  74  44  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  71  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  44  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  71  47  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  43  68  46 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-Okeechobee-
     Osceola-Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Inland
     Volusia County-Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern
     Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Bragaw is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.