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000
FXUS62 KMLB 231357
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
957 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over SC early this
morning and will slip SE over the Atlc today and tonight.
Breezy/gusty NE winds along the coast will bring marine
stratocumulus clouds onshore but no rain is forecast. Occasional
BKN-OVC skies possible esp along the coast as the stratocu
pancake beneath a subsidence inversion around 5k ft. The NE flow
will produce temperatures below normal for late April, reaching
the mid 70s along the immediate coast and around 80 well inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 950 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions with ocnl CIGs around 050AGL in stratocumulus
pushing onshore. Gusty NE winds around 20 knots will occur esp at
coastal terminals. Winds will decrease below 10 knots after
sunset and veer out of the East.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure is forecast to settle across
the southeastern US today, with a dry air mass continuing to filter
in across the Florida peninsula. As a result, no mentionable rain
chances today through tonight with skies remaining mostly clear.
North-northeast winds early this morning will veer to out of the
east-northeast this afternoon as the high pressure settles, with
gusts up to 25 mph possible along the immediate coast this
afternoon. These onshore winds combined with the slightly cooler air
mass lingering across the peninsula will keep temperatures in the
mid 70s to low 80s across east central Florida today, with overnight
lows falling into the mid 50s tonight.

Despite the nice weather today, hazardous beach conditions will
exist, with a High Risk of rip currents and rough surf present at
all east central Florida beaches. Entering the surf is strongly
discouraged.

Wednesday-Friday...Prevailing dry conditions expected through mid to
late week, with temperatures warming through the period. A dry
airmass with PW values around 0.5-1.0" will persist through much of
the week, with skies mostly clear. Ridge axis of high pressure over
the west Atlantic will remain across or just north of the area,
allowing for a relatively light E/SE flow through at least Thursday,
with speeds around 5-10 mph. Easterly winds then increase into
Friday afternoon, up to 10-15 mph as this weak ridge begins to break
down and a stronger area of high pressure centered off the Northeast
U.S. coast takes over. Temperatures rise to near to above normal
values through the remainder of the week, with highs on Wednesday in
the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast to low to mid 80s inland, and
then rising to the lows 80s along the coast to mid-upper 80s across
the interior into late week. Lows will fall into the upper 50s/low
60s Wednesday night and then will generally remain in the 60s
Thursday night and Friday night.

Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge aloft builds eastward over the area into
the weekend, before gradually breaking down into early next week. At
the surface, high pressure offshore of the northeast U.S. early
Saturday will gradually build southward through the weekend and into
early next week, with a breezy onshore flow developing into the
weekend and then gradually decreasing Monday through Tuesday. Latest
runs of the GFS/ECMWF still indicate some waves of slightly higher
moisture that may lead to some isolated onshore moving showers in
the east-southeasterly flow through the weekend into early next
week, but still not a lot of great agreement on favored time periods
for this activity. For now will continue to keep mentionable rain
chances out of the forecast. Regardless, should any low end rain
chances eventually be introduced, any rainfall will be light and
sparse, so those wanting more substantial rainfall after the drier
conditions as of late will still have some more waiting to do.
Temperatures will continue to remain near to above normal, with
highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue
across all legs of the local Atlantic waters due to seas of 6 to 9
feet. North-northeast winds around 15 knots will veer to out of the
east-northeast and diminish to around 10 knots this afternoon,
leading to seas gradually subsiding late this afternoon into
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all local
Atlantic waters through 10 AM, and will then be in effect for
only the Gulf Stream waters through 4 PM. The Small Craft will
then remain in effect for only the offshore Brevard waters and all
legs of the Treasure Coast waters through 11 PM. Dry conditions
are forecast across the local waters through tonight.

Wednesday-Saturday...Boating conditions become more favorable into
mid to late week, with ridge axis of high pressure over the west
Atlantic extended near to just north of the area. An E/SE wind flow
will largely persist over the waters, with winds speeds around 5-10
knots Wednesday and Thursday, increasing to 10-15 knots Thursday
night into Friday. Seas will range from 3-5 feet Wednesday and then
continue to fall through the work week, to 2-4 feet Thursday and 2-3
feet on Friday.

Boating conditions then look to deteriorate into Saturday as
stronger area of high pressure centered off the Northeast U.S. coast
allows easterly winds to continue to increase up to 15-20 knots.
Seas will also build up to 3-5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across east
central Florida today as an area of high pressure settles across the
peninsula. Minimum RH values are forecast to once again fall into
the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior west of I-95, with
the lowest RH values expected across Lake County, western Orange
County, and western Osceola County. North-northeast winds will veer
to out of the east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25
mph possible along the immediate coast. Conditions are generally
expected to remain just below critical fire weather thresholds.

Wednesday-Friday...Much drier airmass across the area through mid to
late week will continue sensitive fire weather conditions across the
area. Critically low RH values are forecast each afternoon, mainly
over the interior, as easterly onshore flow will keep RH values
elevated along the coast. Min RH values will drop as low as the
upper 20s to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday, and mid to upper 30s
Friday. Wind speeds across the interior, where critically low RH
values are expected, look to remain below 15 mph Wednesday and
Thursday, but may approach around 15 mph on Friday afternoon as
onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  56  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  75  60  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  77  58  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  79  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  79  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  77  56  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly