Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 222025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
125 PM PDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Mainly Dry and warm most of this week except for a chance of a
few showers or thunderstorms over the mountains each day starting


Temperatures are running a little warmer today than yesterday and
should top out in the mid 80s throughout the valley. A weak dry
trough will pass over the northern end of the state Sunday morning
and weak north flow will develop behind the system. Temperatures
are expected to warm a degree or two over todays highs on Monday.
A ridge will stay over the area through the middle of this week
as a low pressure system deepens off the coast and becomes cutoff
from the jet. Temperatures will be running well above normal in
the 10 to 15 degree range through Wednesday with the warmest days
this week on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some moisture advects northward from the southwest over the
Sierra nevada on Tuesday and may bring a few showers or even
some isolated thunderstorms...mainly near the crest.

The models are mixed on Wednesday with the convection over the
mountains with the GFS indicating greater activity while the NAM
has a dry forecast. Have left in a mention of showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains for now.



An upper level cutoff low is expected to move over interior
NorCal late next week into the weekend. Forecast uncertainty still
remains for the extended forecast as current model runs do not
agree on timing and location of the upper level trough. Generally,
the trough approaches the area Thursday, allowing temperatures to
cool slightly. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
over the mountain crests. The upper low then moves over the area
Friday into the weekend, creating a more widespread chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the mountains, foothills, and
possibly into the valley depending on how the pattern resolves.
Temperatures cool to seasonal normals by Friday, as well. HEC



VFR conditions at the TAF sites the next 24 hours. Winds 10 kts
or less.


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