Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

MVFR/VFR cigs in moderate CU field wrapping around low pressure
center has developed in earnest across the southeast. I haven`t
seen any reports of light showers but wouldn`t be surprised across
SE AL this afternoon with the depth of the moderate CU elements
on satellite. For the most part, have VFR but tempo to high MVFR
in thicker CU is possible. Overnight, have MVFR working into DHN
as cigs fall through the night with a return to VFR by mid



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The large upper low over the Tennessee Valley will move eastward
very little through today. As a shortwave passes through the low,
expect an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon, and
possibly a few light showers across parts of southeast AL and
southwest GA. Afternoon highs will be cooler than yesterday due to
the frontal passage and the trough aloft. Expect highs to peak in
the mid 70s across SE AL and SW GA, with upper 70s expected

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

A large, somewhat disorganized upper level trough will prevail
across most of the continental US throughout this period. The
initial shortwave feature embedded in the larger trough will push
eastward toward the Atlantic coast from tonight through Wednesday,
while at the surface a broad surface low drifts farther northeast
of our area. In the wake of this feature, dry west-northwesterly
flow will occur, and no rain is expected across our area through
Wednesday night. On Thursday, a second upper level shortwave
embedded in the larger trough will slide eastward into the
Southeast, with a surface low under its leading edge pushing
across Alabama and Georgia. Increasing moisture south of this
feature, along with forcing from the low and strong PV advection
will lead to increasing chances of showers, mainly across SE
Alabama and SW Georgia on Thursday.

During the afternoon and early evening on Thursday, some isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as well. A couple of these storms
may become strong as 0-6 km bulk shear reaches 40 knots, although
instability will be a limiting factor as SBCAPE will likely remain
around 500 J/kg or less. Low-level shear and helicity values do
not appear sufficient for a tornado threat at this time. Warm
days and cool nights will prevail throughout this period, as highs
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the mid-
upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the Gulf Coast.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The upper level shortwave and surface low mentioned in the short
term discussion will push east of our area from Thursday night
into Friday, gradually bringing chances of showers to an end as
drier air moves in from the west. One more potent upper level
shortwave will move eastward across our area on Friday night and
Saturday morning, but deep layer moisture will still be limited
in the wake of the previous feature (PW values less than 1"), so
rainfall is not anticipated at this time. Dry conditions will
prevail from the weekend through early next week as deep layer
ridging builds across the eastern US. Comfortable temperatures
will continue through the end of April as highs will be from the
upper 70s to lower 80s across our area, and lows range from the
mid 50s to lower 60s.


Westerly to northwesterly winds around 15 knots are expected today
and tonight, with seas generally from 2 to 3 feet. Winds and seas
are expected to decrease later this week through the upcoming


Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next few days, though
dispersion indices are forecast to be marginally high.


Small rises will continue on many rivers across our area today
after Sunday`s rainfall, but no flooding concerns are expected.
The next chance of rain will come on Thursday, with a few heavier
showers possible, mainly across our northwestern areas. However,
rain totals should remain well under 1" for most areas, with dry
conditions through the remainder of the period. As a result, no
flooding is expected through the next several days.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   56  80  56  80  58 /   0   0   0  20  20
Panama City   60  75  61  75  60 /   0   0   0  20  30
Dothan        55  78  56  77  56 /   0   0   0  50  30
Albany        56  78  56  77  57 /  10   0   0  40  30
Valdosta      56  80  56  80  58 /  10   0   0  20  10
Cross City    58  80  56  81  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  60  76  61  75  62 /   0   0   0  10  20


FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.



NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.