Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 210707
SWODY3
SPC AC 210706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the Plains
while strong storms may develop across Virginia/North Carolina.

...Plains...

Remnants of an upper low over southern CA will eject across the
Great Basin into MT during the day3 period as a corridor of somewhat
stronger mid-level flow translates across eastern WY into the Black
Hills region. Even so, this belt of stronger flow will only be on
the order of 30-40kt at 500mb, but more than adequate for sustaining
organized updrafts along western plume of moisture/instability. One
negative for widespread convection across the northern High Plains
region will be the neutral/weak height rises despite the presence of
the aforementioned short wave. Latest thinking is strong
boundary-layer heating and orographic influences will contribute to
convective development, some of which will likely be robust in
nature. Low-level warm advection will likely induce strong
convection across the Dakotas as LLJ is expected to veer into
southeast SD during the latter half of the period.

...VA/NC...

Northwesterly flow will deepen across the Middle Atlantic/Southeast
into the day3 period as a strong short-wave trough digs across
northern New England. This northwesterly flow will encourage a
surface front to surge into VA early in the period before moving off
the Carolina coast during the overnight hours. Strong heating ahead
of this boundary, along with modest mid-level flow, suggest any
storms that form along the front could produce gusty winds/hail.

..Darrow.. 05/21/2018

$$


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