Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
304 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep dry weather in place for Monday
and the first part of Tuesday, with breezy winds along the coast.
Unsettled weather with more rainfall returns by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure builds into the region today with mostly sunny
skies expected. Am noting some lower stratocumulus stream off
the ocean and Chesapeake Bay, mainly affecting coastal NE NC and
portions of Hampton Roads. This is not captured well by the
guidance but feel these clouds may persist through most of
today. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s along the coast
(given the continuing gusty onshore wind). Further inland,
bumped up highs a degree or two into the 60-62 range (close to
the NBM 75th/90th percentile) given full sunshine and building
850 mb temps. Patchy high clouds will move in later across the
W. Additional low clouds are likely to develop tonight over the
ocean and move onshore. Lows look to be in the low-mid 30s
inland and in the upper 30s-low 40s for coastal localities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

A low pressure system will move from the central Plains to the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday, pushing an associated cold front eastward
towards our area. Moisture will be a bit hard-pressed at first due
to the main system being so far north of our area. Currently looks
like the rain will hold off until the day on Wednesday as that front
gradually moves closer. Since it won`t be in an hurry to pass
through as it weakens and almost stalls out, rain chances will stick
around into Wednesday night. Rain could become heavier Wednesday
night, particularly across south/southeastern areas as a disturbance
forms and moves along the weak boundary out of NC and across our
coastal region. High temperatures on Tuesday will be around 60
degrees inland, with slightly warmer temps expected on Wednesday,
especially across northeast NC where mid to upper 60s will be
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

The aforementioned developing surface low will move across the
region and off the coast on Thursday. This will produce a swath of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall along and east of I-85/95. It
should be noted that models continue to show differences in both the
track of the low and subsequently the rainfall totals. GFS shows
upwards of 1.5-3 inches of rain east of I-85/south of US-460 for
Wednesday and Thursday, while the ECMWF has the low move offshore
much further south, only giving us 0.5-1.5 inches of rain (with the
higher amounts across the far southeast). Currently, kept the QPF
forecast in the middle with the higher amounts across the south.
There may be a shift eastward in the higher rainfall totals in
following forecast packages. WPC has a marginal risk of Excessive
Rainfall for the area Wed and Thurs since any higher rainfall totals
may lead to hydrological issues. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
on Thursday with highs holding in the mid 50s.

The low moves offshore Thursday night into Friday morning with high
pressure building in behind it from the southwest. Northwest winds
may be a bit breezy on Friday as the pressure gradient remains
tightened around the backside of the trough. For the remainder of
the weekend, we remain in zonal-to-slightly-northwesterly flow aloft
across the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow disturbances to pass
through bringing periods of clouds and potential showers. Could see
a slight chance of showers briefly both Saturday and Sunday as this
occurs. Temperatures will warm this weekend, with highs reaching 70
degrees on Saturday and potentially the lower 70s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR to start the 18z period. Lower MVFR CIGs are
prevalent along the immediate coast and have been affecting ORF
and occasionally PHF. Guidance continues to handle these clouds
poorly so they may persist through most of the aftn. Later
tonight, high clouds increase from the W. Further E, maritime
air mass moves in off the ocean with thickening/lowering clouds
for most of the area. CIGs may initially be MVFR as clouds move
in. However, CIGs likely drop to IFR by 12-14z Tuesday for ORF,
PHF, SBY, and ECG. RIC is less certain so will only indicate
OVC010 in the TAF. Otherwise, NNE-NE winds remain gusty at the
coast this aftn. Winds diminish some tonight and especially
Tuesday where kt NNE winds averaging 5-10 kt are expected.

Outlook: Low clouds perist, especially E, through most of
Tuesday. Rain chances will return on Wednesday and persist into
Thursday. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are also possible.
Flight restrictions are likely.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- NE wind continued elevated tonight

- Elevated seas continue through the week especially over the
coastal waters

- Increasing confidence of N-NW winds gusting to or over gale force
on Thursday into Friday.

High pressure to the north with low pressure to the east of the area
will allow NE winds to continue tonight and even into Tuesday. Winds
have weakened slightly this afternoon, however they are expected to
increase to 15-25kt (highest over the ocean waters) with gusts to 20-
30kt. The high gradually shifts over the waters late tonight into
Tuesday which should allow for the small craft advisories for the
bay to end. However, SCAs over the ocean and entrance of the bay
will need to continue due to the 7-10 ft swell remaining through Tue
night before decreasing to 3-5 ft by Wednesday.

Low pressure is expected to develop over the Southeastern states on
Wednesday then gradually move N or NE on Thursday. There is still
some uncertainty on the track and speed of the low. However, the
consensus is that N or NE winds will gradually increase to 15-25 on
Thursday and then 20-30kt on Thu night into Friday morning as the
low shifts offshore of the area and deepens quickly while turning
NW. Confidence is increasing in a period of gale force winds
(especially in gusts late Thu into Friday morning and have that
reflected in the forecast. Seas will not be as high as today or
tomorrow due to the N or NW flow, but they should still be 2-4 ft in
the bay and 4-7 ft over the ocean.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Two strong flood tides at the mouth of the bay have allowed tidal
anomalies to rise to 1.5ft above normal astronomical tide, yielding
some upper bay sites touching minor flood today. With the persistent
NE flow into Tuesday, expect the anomalies to continue to rise
through Tuesday potentially reaching 2 ft above astro tide. This may
allow some upper bay sites to reach moderate coastal flooding on
Tuesday/Tue night. As such, will maintain the coastal flood watch
for the upper bay on Tuesday. Will keep the coastal flood advisory
for the remainder of the area through Tuesday night with multiple
high tide cycles likely reaching flood. Will need to watch for the
potential for minor coastal flooding late Thursday in the lower bay
(especailly Lynnhaven) due to the increasing N-NW flow on the back
side of the next low pressure system moving up the coast.

Due to the large swell of 7-10 feet through Tuesday, will maintain
the high surf advisory for the entire coastal zone. With these large
waves and minor coastal flooding, there is certainly some potential
for beach erosion and will include that in the updated CFW
statement.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077-
     078-085.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for VAZ075-077-078-085.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ082-084-
     086-089-090-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ093-
     095>098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday
     night for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP/SW
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MRD


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