Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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046 FXUS62 KCAE 190717 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 317 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Abundant moisture across the region will keep rain chances likely lingering into Sunday, especially across the CSRA. Drier air will be over the region for Monday through Wednesday along with warming temperatures.The next frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue across the northern Midlands early this morning as a backdoor cold front slowly moves south. Low clouds and fog are likely to develop behind the boundary towards daybreak, especially in locations that have seen rain tonight. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. A backdoor cold front will continue to slip through the forecast area with rain chances decreasing across the northern Midlands this morning. The passage of an upper trough combined with high PWATs will promote the development of additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with convection most likely over the CSRA and adjacent portions of the southern Midlands. A few thunderstorms could be strong, especially over Burke County, GA which is just north of the Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather in the Day 1 SPC outlook. Gusty winds will be the primary severe hazard through there will be a non-zero risk for large hail as well with any robust thunderstorms. Drier air will move southward through the day with PoPs decreasing from north to south through the afternoon and evening hours. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms should move out of the region early this evening with decreasing cloudiness tonight. Northeast winds behind the front combined with widespread cloudiness will limit how warm temperatures get. Forecast highs range from the lower to mid 70s in the northern and central Midlands to the upper 70s in the CSRA and southern Midlands. With clearing skies and drier air filtering in, a cool night is anticipated with forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be moving toward the central Atlantic States from the western Great Lakes today and be centered north of the area tonight. This will keep dry conditions over the forecast area with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph from late morning through the afternoon hours. With cool and dry air in the mid and low levels the only clouds expected through the period will be some cirrus crossing the region. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 50s to around 60. Radiational cooling will be good tonight however light winds combined with the cirrus will prevent cooling from becoming optimal. This will yield overnight lows ranging from the low 30s north to the upper 30s in the SE Midlands and southern CSRA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level trough will continue tracking away from the region Monday as upper level ridging builds from the western Gulf States through New England. On Tuesday the ridge will migrate slightly eastward with its progress being slowed by the deep upper level trough remaining over the western Atlantic. At the surface weak high pressure will be in control of the Atlantic Seaboard keeping drier air over the forecast area for Monday and Tuesday. Pwat values will drop to around 0.9 inches Monday morning and remain there through Tuesday with model soundings indicating a weak subsidence inversion. With the subsidence inversion suppressing convection expect cumulus to develop each day however vertical development will be limited. Temperatures will also moderate slightly each day as the upper level ridge builds into the region and surface flow turns from northeasterly to easterly on Tuesday. As such afternoon high temperatures on Monday will be in the low 80s and the mid 80s on Tuesday. With mostly clear skies and light winds expected each night radiational cooling will be good allowing overnight lows to fall into the upper 50s to around 60s each night. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monitoring for Restrictions Behind a Passing Frontal Boundary... A backdoor cold front continues to move slowly south through the northern Midlands tonight. Decreased ceilings are being noted at stations behind this boundary and guidance remains bullish in reduced ceilings reaching all terminals prior to daybreak. In addition to these low clouds, area of fog are also possible, especially at OGB and AGS. No significant changes were made to the forecasts besides minor adjustments to the timing. Low clouds will almost certainly last longer than guidance suggests they will at this point, which is why this forecast keeps lower MVFR at all sites through the end of the TAF period. Having said that, some improvement is likely after 00Z Monday and a new line will likely be added to the next forecast update to show this. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at the terminals later today, especially AGS/DNL. This potential has been omitted from the TAFs for now due to low confidence but may also be added with the next update if trends continue. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic restrictions from showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday evening. Conditions should improve Sunday night followed by an extended period of dry weather. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$