562
FXUS62 KCAE 290745
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
345 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime weather is expected to continue into early
next week with near to slightly above normal temperatures and
daily shower and thunderstorm chances. More widespread showers
and storms Tuesday and Wednesday and slightly cooler. Summer
pattern returns for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued summer pattern with scattered diurnal convection
  and near normal temperatures

Little change in the overall pattern and atmospheric conditions
today. The upper low continues to be located over eastern GA
but will become diffuse as upper ridging builds back over the
region. Atmospheric moisture remains high with PWATs around
1.7-1.9 inches with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Expecting scattered diurnal pulse convection again today given
moderate instability and weak shear, typical of mid summer.
Overall severe threat continues to be low, but non-zero, while a
localized flood threat may be more probable with slow storm
movement and above normal moisture. Hi-res CAM guidance looks
similar to Saturday showing isolated to scattered convection
initiating early afternoon with convective temps in the low to
mid 90s primarily favoring the sea breeze and any lingering
outflow boundaries. High temperatures should again be in the
lower to mid 90s while overnight lows remain mild in the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing rain chances and a bit cooler with upper trough
  and weak cold front approaching the area.

Monday will begin with upper ridging hanging on over the forecast
area with an upper trough digging into the Midwest. This will lead
to the overall flow shifting out of the southwest over the forecast
area with HREF mean indicating a marginal increase in PWATs. This
may slightly increase convective coverage during the afternoon as
indicated by blended guidance, although synoptic scale forcing will
be lacking over the forecast area so once again CAMs favor isolated
storms with a bit higher coverage along the sea breeze in the
eastern portion of the forecast area. Slight weakening of the upper
ridge will lead to temperatures a degree or two cooler but still
near normal heat and humidity.

Tuesday the upper trough will continue to approach the forecast
area. PWATs continue to increase with NAEFs mean indicating they
rise to above the 90th percentile with majority of GEFS members
indicating values above 2 inches. While much of the day, forcing
will likely remain northwest of the area, moderate destabilization
and increased moisture with blended guidance indicating 50 to 60
percent probability of sbCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg will likely lead
to higher coverage of showers and storms. Any storms will have the
potential to produce high rain rates. Unlike previous days, likely
that convection lingers into Tuesday night as the upper trough
shifts into the area. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler Tuesday
compared to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Widespread rain possible Wednesday with cooler conditions.
- Typical summertime pattern returns for the second half of the
  week and into the weekend.

Better agreement among ensemble means with regards to the
progression of the upper trough across the forecast area.
Anomalously high moisture continues through Wednesday with some
forcing provided by the upper trough, although it will likely be
weakening as it continues to push into the area. This will likely
once again lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.
Blended guidance indicates Wednesday will be the coolest day in
about two weeks with highs remaining in the 80s. Ensembles are
in agreement beyond this trough, upper ridging will strengthen
over the central CONUS which will slowly shift towards the
forecast area. Heights recover with temperatures rising back to
near average with another typical summer period with highs near
normal and isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected outside of diurnal
convection.

Some lingering isolated thunderstorms around the AGS/DNL so
including a tempo through 08z, otherwise mostly clear skies
across the region with light to calm winds expected through
sunrise. Little change in atmospheric conditions will lead to
another day with isolated to scattered afternoon convection with
winds increasing from the south to around 5 to 8 mph. Will
include PROB30 groups at AGS/DNL/OGB where confidence is a bit
higher. Convective debris clouds likely this evening before
clearing out late with winds diminishing to near calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy ground fog possible each
night...but is unlikely to cause significant issues at the
terminals. Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms expected
early next week. A front could approach the Southeast next week
leading to increased thunderstorm chances.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$