188
FXUS61 KCLE 101943
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary front will linger over northern Ohio through
tomorrow before lifting northward. A low pressure system will
track through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday,
dragging a cold front through the region. This front will stall
near the Ohio Valley Monday before returning north through mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon mainly along and east of I-71 across northeast Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania. The afternoon convection developed
along a weak stationary front and lake breeze from Lake Erie.
Most of the thunderstorms will remain sub-severe but there
could be an isolated stronger storm with downburst winds and
some hail. The steering flow aloft is rather weak so these
storms are moving or drifting slowly eastward. Locally heavy
rainfall may be possible. Most of this afternoon convection will
dissipate around sunset as we lose the daytime heating that is
driven these storms.

The flow aloft will be zonal tonight and Friday. A weak
disturbance in the mid level flow will track across the Upper
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Friday. This disturbance in
the 500 mb flow will help lift the weak stalled frontal boundary
northward on Friday. We will maintain some slight POPs Friday
into Friday evening. The Day 2 SPC outlook has a marginal risk
for a stronger storm possible over northwest Ohio which will be
closer to the weak frontal boundary. Isolated damaging wind
gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storm Friday.
Most of the convection in our area will dissipate Friday evening
by sunset. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the
middle 80s to around 90 degrees.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will swing through Upper Midwest into the
Upper Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. A weak cold
front will slowly drop down across the Great Lakes region late
Saturday into Saturday night. Ahead of the cold front Saturday,
high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible as this weak cold
front sags into the Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. The Day 3
SPC outlook has a marginal risk for severe weather and the main
threat would be isolated damaging wind gusts possible. The weak
cold front will slow down and stall out over the area on Sunday.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected mainly
during the daytime heating Sunday. Slow movement of storms this
weekend may cause heavy rainfall and an isolated flash flooding
concern. Highs on Sunday will be generally in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will continue to be nearby or just
southeast of the area on Monday. We will mention slight to
chance POPs for diurnally driven convection for Monday. The weak
stalled front will eventually wash out Monday night. An upper
level ridge of high pressure will move from the Central Plains
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Warmer and drier
weather will be expected with this upper level ridge moving
across the region. High temps will climb into the upper 80s and
lower 90s with heat index values approaching the upper 90s to
100 degrees. The next chance for rainfall may arrive Wednesday
night with a cold front advancing through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with non-VFR
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
afternoon. Current radar and satellite observations suggest
CAK/YNG have the highest potential of seeing direct tsra impacts
later this afternoon and evening, as the lake breeze is already passing
through ERI/CLE. MFD will be on the fringe, thus kept vcts
mention, though low confidence in direct impacts precludes tsra
mention at this time. Otherwise, patches of dense fog may
develop once again overnight, mainly impacting MFD/CAK/YNG where
more widespread rain is more likely. Otherwise, will need to
watch remnant nocturnal convection towards the west for possible
Friday morning impacts at TOL.

Winds are generally favoring a west to southwest direction
ahead of the weak cold front/lake breeze, and favoring a north
to northwest direction behind the cold front/lake breeze, around
5 to 10 knots. Winds will become light and variable overnight
before favoring a southwest direction by late Friday morning,
around 5 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday in
showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR expected Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With the exception of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are
generally expected to be 10 knots or less through Friday. Winds may
briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift towards the west late
Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves across the lake. This
could usher in some 2-footers across the central and eastern basin
of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a low chance of
thunderstorms impacting the western and central basin of Lake Erie
Friday afternoon and evening. Chances for thunderstorms increase by
late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves east through the
area.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn