420
ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes during much of the day on Saturday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the central
and southern High Plains southeastward toward the Texas Hill
Country.

... Upper Great Lakes ...

Multiple vorticity maxima will coalesce into a singular short-wave
trough across the region on Saturday. This amalgamation of vorticity
will take on an increasingly negative tilt as this feature moves
through the basal region of a broad Canadian trough. As this occurs,
the upper-level jet core downstream of the Canadian trough will
strengthen, placing much of the Upper Great lakes within the right
entrance region of the jet. Thus, multiple bands of strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a surface
cold front in response to this increasing large-scale ascent.
Most-unstable CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and effective-layer
shear between 30-40 knots will support at least some potential for
damaging thunderstorm winds.

... Central High Plains southeast toward the Texas Hill Country ...

Thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the southern Great
Plains throughout the forecast period along a stalled frontal
boundary. Although an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out along the frontal boundary, the greatest chance of organized
severe thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon across
the higher terrain of central and southern Colorado. Here, moist
upslope flow at the surface coupled with modest north-northwesterly
flow aloft should aid in the development of an MCS during the
afternoon and evening. This MCS should move south-southeast during
the overnight hours across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles eventually approaching the Texas Hill Country by the end
of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2025

$$