528
FXUS63 KEAX 171946
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the 80s through Tuesday, 5 to 10 degrees
  above normal.

- Widely scattered precipitation chances (10-20%) Saturday and
  Sunday.

- Active Pattern Sunday Night through at least Wednesday. Severe
  storm concerns focused on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Mid-level water vapor imagery reveals the elongated long wave trough
axis remains stretched from the the upper Mid-west back to the
Permian Basin of Texas. Forcing along the Gulf Coast persists this
afternoon, with a second area of forcing for ascent nearer a more
pronounced H500 short wave lifting along the OK/TX border,
stretching across the Ozark Plateau to the northeast. Within this
belt of more moist, somewhat unstable air, a robust cu field has
developed with several brief updrafts popping up on radar, some as
far north as the Osage River Basin of Truman Lake to the Lake of the
Ozarks. Have included some low (15%) chance PoPs through the evening
for this activity. Overnight, the positively tilted mid-level ridge
will build from the southwestern High Plains into and across the
Region.

With the upper ridge aloft, enhanced by the impingement of the
broader H500 trough along the Canadian Prairies, persisting through
Saturday, WAA will increase. Afternoon highs will reach about 10
degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 80s. Through the late
afternoon, a cold front will drop out of the north, providing a
focus for widely scattered showers and thunder across northern
Missouri and potentially as far south as the KC Metro and Missouri
River valley through the evening. Severe storms are not expected at
this time given weak shear profiles. Overnight, a weak short wave
trough will be the focus for additional development across Kansas
and southern Nebraska, with this complex expected to lift east-
northeast across northern Missouri through Sunday morning. Again,
most locations across central and southern Missouri will remain dry.

Through Sunday afternoon, expect convection to develop across the
central Plains associated with another open short wave advancing
across the region. Although some question to the environment will
exist depending on the morning convection, surface dew points into
the 60s are expected by the late afternoon, with storms growing
upscale as they advance eastward into the evening into northeastern
Kansas and western Missouri. One or two severe storms cannot be
ruled out overnight, with generally a concern for damaging winds.
The wider concern may be localized heavy rainfall Sunday night.

Monday, mid-range solutions continue to hint at recovery through the
day Monday, with sufficient moisture return ahead of the advancing
short wave trough onto the plains. A dry line will surge as far as
central Kansas Monday evening, with initiation through the late
afternoon into the evening, building east-northeast with time along
the broader area of ascent ahead of the synoptic wave. We could see
some robust activity within the warm sector through Monday evening,
near the warm front across night, southeast Nebraska and across
northwestern Missouri into Iowa. Sufficient instability, 1200 to
2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 35 to 45 kts of bulk 0-6km shear will be
present, supporting organized convection. Again, outside of severe
concerns, heavy rainfall will likely lead to increased flooding
concerns.

Tuesday, expect most activity to lift north through the morning,
with the region once again well within the warm sector with recovery
persisting through the day. Surface dew points will surge into the
mid to upper 60s, with activity developing along and ahead of the
cold front through the afternoon into the evening as it advances
across Missouri. Ample instability and shear profiles will support
organization and increase severe concerns.

Overall, agree with the Monday and Tuesday Slight Risks from SPC
given the current concerns for the early week timeframe.

Some lingering chances for precipitation on Wednesday before ridging
may build in to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period with scattered cumulus
cloud decks building in during the daytime. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies will be observed over the terminals through the evening and
overnight hours. Winds will be light and predominately out of the
south at around 5-8 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Hayes