Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 171158
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2019

A wintry mix of light freezing drizzle and light snow is ongoing
across much of the forecast area, with visibilities generally reduced
to 2 miles or less. Untreated surfaces have become slick and
hazardous travel conditions remain in place for untreated roadways.
The back edge of the wintry mix is currently situated near
Topeka, with regional radar imagery and surface observations
depicting a clear delineation of improving conditions. Expect this
edge of drier air to move eastward as the morning progresses,
with widespread improvement between 15-18z. With the ongoing
freezing drizzle and subsequent icy conditions, elected to extend
advisory to 15z. Clouds are expected to hold in place today into
Monday, and temperatures will do little to warm, with highs in the
20s and lower 30s both days.

A welcome break in the wintry precipitation will be appreciated
beginning later today and lasting for roughly 48 hours. Attention
will quickly turn to a strong upper wave currently over the
California coast as it amplifies and ejects into the Plains on
Tuesday. Overall model timing and placement of key features are in
relatively good agreement. Precipitation is expected to
develop/arrive in the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and depart
Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings suggest a profile below
freezing, however the biggest forecast challenge is the duration of
cloud ice present during the event. This will be a large factor in
all snow versus freezing rain - or more likely a combination of
both. Current thinking is for most activity to initially be in the
form of snow, with a gradual loss of cloud ice from south to north
Tuesday night. While the event is still several days away, with
uncertainty to the exact type of precipitation and subsequent
amounts, trends are certainly pointing in the direction of another
accumulating winter weather event.

Looking even further out, after a short break in the mid-week
winter event, yet another strong upper wave is suggested to move
into the area for next weekend, potentially bringing another round
of precipitation. Model spread exists with respect to the timing
and track of the system - ample time to watch this evolve over the
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2019

Conditions will gradually improve over the next few hours as
drizzle shifts east, with improving visibilities and rising
ceilings. A return to VFR will be possible my mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair



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