Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210511

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Issued at 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019

Message of the day: Oppressive heat and humidity are still
expected this afternoon, despite morning and early afternoon
storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected with heat indices
between 100 and 110 for those mainly along and south of the MO
River. As for storms, they should continue weakening, with the
entire area being dry by this evening.

The MCS that moved through northeast MO this morning pushed off to
the east with the upper level shortwave supporting it. The
convection stretching west to east along HWY 36 was a result of the
outflow boundary of the morning system. This line has diminished
significantly over the last hour and will continue to do so, with
the expectation that everyone should be dry by the early evening.
All of this convection has battled with the warm air advection
moving in from the south. While temperatures have struggled to get
into the 90s, dew points are at oppressive numbers (mid to upper
70s). This has resulted in heat indices ranging from 100-110, with
the exception of those in northeast MO where storms have had more
of an impact on both temperatures and dew points. The heat
advisory was expanded earlier to include Atchison county MO and
is in effect for counties southwest of a line from Atchison
county MO to Howard county MO until 8 PM.

Tonight should be quiet, but another round of storms is expected in
the morning as another shortwave trough moves into the area with a
ramped up LLJ nosing into northeast KS and northwest MO. Right now
it looks like storms won`t reach our area until around sunrise.
Storms will then spread east across northern MO throughout the
morning. Those north of the MO River have the best chance to see
storms tomorrow morning. Some storms in the morning could become
strong, with strong winds and small hail being the main concerns.
Additionally, a swath of 3-5 inches of rain fell today in northwest
MO from Holt county over to Clinton county. Therefore, any
additional rainfall tomorrow, especially with PWATs greater than 2
inches, could create flash flooding problems. Wednesday afternoon,
a deeper shortwave trough will move through the region as a cold
front begins moving into the area. This will create storm chances
across the entire area for Wednesday afternoon into the overnight
hours. Again, strong storms are possible with wind and hail being
the main concerns, as well as heavy rain. It is possible to see
widespread 1-2 inches of rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday
with locally higher amounts possible. With that said, flash
flooding could very well be a concern Wednesday night.

On/off storm chances will linger Thursday with us being somewhat
smashed between surface low pressure and high pressure while upper
level energy repeatedly moves overhead. For Friday through the
weekend, there`s a slight chance for some storms but everyone
should be mostly dry.

Temperature-wise, Wednesday will still be a little muggy for those
south of I-70 until the cold front pushes through. Then Thursday
through the weekend much more comfortable temperatures are expected
as high pressure kisses the area and shifts winds to the east.
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are forecast initially with
temperatures warming into the upper 80s by Sunday.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT WED AUG 21 2019

Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected over the
next 24 hours. Tough to find periods where chances for rain are
low, but once showers pick up in the next 2 to 4 hours most of the
remaining period will have increasing chances for rain. Not
expecting continuous rain at the terminals, but off and on showers
will likely prevail through Wednesday evening. Could see wholesale
decreasing chances for rain toward the end of this forecast period
for Wednesday night.




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