Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192247
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
447 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 225 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2020

A broad surface ridge will continue to advance southeast into the
region this evening and overnight hours, while the arctic air
mass continues to settle firmly into place. Ongoing cold
advection trends will continue until early Tuesday, and with snow
pack still present across northern Missouri, overnight lows will
dip into the low negatives for the northern counties. Despite
weaker surface winds in place tonight, lower air temps will bring
wind chill values down to 15 degrees below zero or slightly colder
Sunday night/Monday morning. Have thus issued a Wind Chill
Advisory through Monday morning for far northwest to north central
Missouri.

A clipper system still looks to move through the area Monday morning
and afternoon, which will present a quick shot of light to perhaps
moderate snow. May see a few flurries Monday morning, but as the
moisture profile deepens with time, increasing precip chances are
expected by the afternoon. Given the progressive nature of the
system, expecting to see only minor accumulations Monday, with
general snow totals ranging from a dusting to a half inch throughout
the area. Afternoon highs Monday will once again be limited to the
teens, while Monday night lows will dip into the single digits to
low negatives, and possibly slightly cooler where snow accumulates.

Will finally see southerly low-level flow and resulting WAA early
Tuesday as the surface ridge advects eastward, bringing Tuesday
afternoon temps above freezing for areas south of the Missouri
River, and at or near freezing north. The next chance for widespread
precip will then arrive early Wednesday as shortwave energy
advects overhead atop increasing moisture returns. The mid to
upper-level pattern will stall through the late week as the main
trough over the Central to Northern Plains deepens with time. This
will maintain precip chances through the late week, gradually
coming to an end by early Saturday. With regard to precip type,
may see a round of snow initially Wednesday morning, though model
soundings currently depict a deep enough warm layer in the lower-
levels to suggest mostly rain through the event, with the
exception being far northern Missouri. May see a return of wintry
precip as the storm system exits the area Friday/Saturday. Will
need to monitor these trends and the overall storm track/thermal
profile as ice may enter the realm of possible scenarios.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 446 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2020

VFR tonight with increasing clouds tomorrow with MVFR possible with
light snow flurries for a few hours from late morning through early
afternoon. Not expecting much snow accumulations, however it is
possible that some areas will receive minor accumulations but
generally less than a half inch at the air terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday
     for MOZ001>006-011.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Christensen


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