Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221711
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

Anomalous -2 to -3 standard deviations below normal upper low
continues to spin across the middle of the country. The greatest
effects of this low, in terms of precipitation chances, will be
across eastern MO and the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
But we`ll continue to see thick cloud cover and north winds as we`ll
remain within the cyclonic flow of the upper low. The cloud cover
and north winds will result in another cooler than normal day across
the area. Temperatures will range from the lower 70s, in our
northeastern zones, to the middle 70s elsewhere. As this system
moves away tonight, another upper shortwave trough will move through
the area. This system will bring another chance for rain to the
area. Although it looks like the best chances will be to our west,
and south, some showers/storms may make it into the area
Saturday/Saturday night. This really doesn`t look like a washout but
the chances aren`t zero either. So feel slight chance to low chance
PoPs are justified.

Focus will then shift to the Sunday to Monday time frame. A much
stronger upper shortwave is expected dive southward through the
Rockies Sunday and into the Plains Sunday evening. Strong southerly
flow ahead of this wave will help advect a large area of upper 60 to
lower 70 degree dewpoint air into the area. Temperatures should
climb into the upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s. This will lead to
very strong instability through the day and with the strong
advection persisting into the night, there is minimal inhibition
built/instability lost. It looks like strong to severe storms will
develop in KS during the afternoon and congeal into a complex of
thunderstorms as the forcing of the upper trough pushes things east.
But this may be a slow push east and for now it looks like storms
would move into the area during the overnight hours. Strong winds
aloft associated with the shortwave will lead to very favorable
shear and think that even into the overnight, as storms move into
eastern KS and western MO, there will be potential for severe
storms. By this time the biggest threat would be from
strong/damaging winds. But strong 0-3km shear suggest, even late
in the night, some potential for tornadoes.

This upper low will linger in the middle of the country through
the first half of next week before shifting to the east. Models
are in pretty good agreement with this. But at the surface, it`s a
different story. As the upper wave`s associated surface front
pushes south through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening, more
thunderstorms are possible. The GFS blows up convection over east
central KS and west central MO with very high QPF. The ECMWF and
the Canadian develop convection further east where the better
upper level support is from the upper trough. The GFS may be a
little too aggressive with it`s low-level moisture and resulting
instability which feeds back into the very high QPF it produces.
Feel there is a chance for storms Tuesday evening but have cut
back on the QPF as it was heavily influenced by the GFS.

For the later half of next week, it looks like the heat and humidity
will return as highs climb back into the middle to upper 90s with
heat indices around 100.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

MVFR clouds will hang about through the front half of the
afternoon, but are expected to lift a little late in the day into
the VFR range for the overnight hours. The northerly wind today
will slack off later this evening, eventually turning to the
southeast late Saturday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter



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