Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 050403
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2020

The wonderful weather pattern continues this week, as the surface
ridge of high pressure remains firmly implanted over the forecast
area. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds are peppering the sky this
afternoon, and while a very very isolated shower can`t be totally
ruled out the lack of moisture and any appreciable lifting mechanism
will make the chances for even isolated sprinkles minimal through
the afternoon. Around sunset, the dirunally driven CU field should
diminish in coverage, and by shortly after sunset the skies should
remain mostly clear for the overnight hours. Given the relatively
cool airmass in place we are already looking at well below normal
overnight lows, but with little cloud cover and light winds it`s
possible for radiational cooling to get most of the area down into
the middle 50s for tonight, more than a 10 degree departure from
normal.

While Wednesday will continue the comfortable weather pattern, it
will also mark a turning point int he pattern for the latter part of
the week, and into the weekend. The low level surface ridge will
begin its exit, which will get winds more from the south to draw
some warmer and moister air into the area for Thursday and beyond.
While highs on Wednesday will still reflect a relatively cool
afternoon, the dewpoints will begin their rise back into more
seasonably normal upper 60s to lower 70s. Then by Thursday the warm
sector will have firmly entrenched itself across the forecast
region. The mostly meridional mid level flow will take more of a
zonal component across the warm and moist sector and that will make
the area more susceptible to daily chances for thunderstorm
activity. The first of these rounds of thunderstorms could come as
early as Thursday evening and overnight, likely a product of a
low level jet nosing into northeast Kansas. This overnight
convection should spread just north and east of the better low
level jet speed gradient. Where exactly and to what magnitude this
sets up is still in question, but that appears to be the more
identifiable of the upcoming chances for thunderstorms across the
immediate forecast area.

While a mid level ridge will set up just south of the forecast area,
there should remain a solid component of zonal flow across the
aforementioned warm sector that is unlikely to break down anytime
real soon. This would mean daily chances for thunderstorms will
continue into early next week and warm/moist conditions will persist
for the forseeable future (after Wednesday). And while there could
be low to moderate chances for rain upcoming, no individual round
nor the accumulation of rounds of rain at this point appear to be of
moderate or high impact.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2020

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with bkn high clouds giving way
to bkn mid-lvl clouds durg the morning. Lgt winds overnight will
will pick up fm the SSE to 5-10kts durg the morning before backing
to te SE durg the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...73



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