Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.Short Term...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM  CDT TUE OCT 20 2020

West to east frontal boundary across the central portion of the
state is expected to sag ever so slightly south.  Flow north of the
boundary is expected to turn more out of the northwest, drawing
drier air into the region.  With the drier air, expect to see
stratus break up from north to south through the evening hours. As
skies become at least partially clear, the radiational cooling
should result in temperatures falling into the upper 30s.  Could see
some patchy frost develop along the Missouri/Iowa border. Closer to
the surface front, still expect a fair amount of low level moisture,
and could see fog develop overnight.

As lee side troughing leads to another low pressure system
organizing in the Northern Rockies, boundary across southern
Missouri is expected to lift north as a warm front.  Expect clouds
to be on the increase through the day, and could see additional
drizzle north of the boundary.  Low level warm air advection could
also lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Elevated CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg and 1-6km bulk shear of 20-40 knots could
lead to the potential for a few isolated severe storms where warm
air advection is able to work around the cap.  Think the best chance
for severe weather will be on the northern fringes of any activity
that develops where the better shear exists.  Severe threat would
likely be confined to hail threat with strong surface inversion.

Convective potential will gradually lift to the north through the
evening hours, with strong southerly flow developing Wednesday night
and continuing into Thursday.  Strong cold front works through the
area late on Thursday leading to another chance for convection.

.Long Term...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM  CDT TUE OCT 20 2020

Much cooler conditions are expected through the weekend as another
wave dives into the Pacific northwest and moves into the Plains.
This wave tracks further to the south than the other systems earlier
in the week. Fairly tight low level thermal field could lead to a
variety of precipitation types across the Central Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020

Low MVFR to IFR conditions will persist for several more hours at
the terminals. Observations to the north and west of the area show
improving conditions and this should be the trend this evening as
the trailing upper trough rotates past the area, allowing for
lower level drier air to push southward. That improvement looks
short-lived though as a warm front moves into the area and low-
level moisture streams into and over the front, inducing low
clouds by late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...BT
Long Term...BT
Aviation...CDB



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