393
FXUS63 KEAX 151734
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures this week.

- Rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday Morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The surface high has shifted to the southeast of the region, with
lee troughing developing in the High Plains. This has setup a
tighter pressure gradient over the Central and Eastern Plains,
leading increasing southerly flow and warm advection. In the
upper- levels broad ridging is building east into the middle of
the country. This pattern will favor a nice warming trend for
the region with highs today climbing into the middle 40s, about
20 degrees warmer than yesterday. That warming trend will
continue into the middle of the week with highs in the middle
50s for Tuesday and the middle to upper 50s for Wednesday.

A strong shortwave will move through the north periphery of the
upper ridge, tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. This will push a strong cold
front through the area late Wednesday to early Thursday. Models
continue to bring precipitation chance further west, and now
most of the forecast area has at least a small chance for rain
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. That cold front will also
drop temperatures Thursday into Friday, with Friday morning
lows in the teens to low 20s. Given the timing of the front
Wednesday night-Thursday morning, a non- diurnal temperature
trend is anticipated. It`s possible to likely that high
temperatures for Thursday across northern MO will be reached
just after midnight with temperatures steady or falling through
the day for much of the area.

The tendency for the later half of next week and into the weekend is
for above normal temperatures. Ensemble clusters and mean upper-
level heights are mainly zonal, with some clusters show slightly
more ridging than other clusters. Deterministic guidance tends to
favor more broad ridging. Regardless, there isn`t an indication,
with the latest suite of guidance, of any strong storm system moving
through the middle of the country through early next week. So this
favors the above normal temperatures and dry conditions shown in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

High pressure is starting to exit the area. The stronger
pressure gradient will keep northerly gusty winds through most
of the afternoon. A few clouds may come in later, but bases will
be VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Krull