Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231114

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Issued at 259 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

A backdoor cold front will push through the area this morning
shifting winds to the NE and allowing slightly cooler air to move
into the area today. High temperatures will be 5-8 degrees colder
today than yesterday with highs in the upper 50s over northern
Missouri and in the low to mid 60s in central Missouri ahead of the
boundary. Surface high pressure with upper level ridging will build
into the region through Wednesday, keeping this nice fall weather
around at least through mid week. A shortwave trough will approach
from the west on Thursday increasing cloud coverage and
precipitation chances. Most guidance keeps the majority of the
moisture and lift to the north and south of Missouri with only the
NAM indicating any real QPF falling along a weak warm frontal
boundary. Due to this spread in model solutions and uncertainty our
PoPs will remain relatively low for this period. The added cloud
coverage will cause temps to drop into the lower 50s on Thursday
with only a slight rebound in temps on Friday along the KS/MO border
into the lower 60s.

Going into the weekend a large amplitude ridge will build into the
western CONUS setting up a northwest flow pattern over our area
allowing multiple shortwave troughs to move through. This will
increase the potential for precipitation, add cloud coverage, and
slightly reduce temps. The first shortwave trough will push through
Friday night into Saturday causing some rain chances over central
and northern Missouri, with little QPF expected. The second
shortwave will come through Sunday providing chances of precip for
central and northern Missouri through Monday morning. Weak forcing
and a lack of moisture will keep any of these quick moving systems
from dropping much QPF though. Upper level ridging and surface high
pressure will build back into the region early next week, leading to
another great start to the work week next week.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will be
light out of the NE this morning but will shift late in the
morning to the E for the remainder of the period.




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