Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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177
FXUS63 KEAX 231107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
607 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

The front that moved through the area last evening has settled
generally from southwest OK northeastward through southwestern MO
into east central MO. Water vapor imagery with 1.5 PVU pressure
overlaid shows a closed low over the the Southwest with a shortwave
moving through the TX panhandle into southwest OK. An area of
thunderstorms is in this area with its rain shield extending into
southern KS. As this shortwave moves east through the day and into
MO overnight tonight, the area of showers/storms will lift east
northeast with it. The main trend in the models has been to lift
this area of precipitation further north and it looks like there
will be a decent chance for rain for much of the forecast
area as the shortwave moves through. Given this, have trended PoPs
higher across the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. The
timing of this looks like later this afternoon into this evening
along the I-70 corridor for the onset. Showers may persist in our
southeastern zones through Wednesday afternoon as the shortwave begins
to exit the area. Overall, rain amounts with this system look to be
on the light side, with only a few hundredths to a few tenths of an
inch expected. With ample cloud cover today and cooler temperatures
anyway behind the front, highs today should only be in the low to
middle 60s.

After this mid-week system moves out, the next decent chance for
precipitation looks to be Friday night/Saturday morning. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move across the central to northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest. A strong low-level jet will develop in response
to the shortwave across KS and MO. It looks possible that a
cluster of storms will form to our west-northwest and then
track to the east with some development southward into the low-level
jet.  The 23/00Z models are in decent agreement showing this moving
into the forecast area early Saturday morning and moving out of the
area by midday. A similar scenario may play out Sunday night into
Monday. Another mid-level wave may initiate another area of storms
to our west-northwest, with this area tracking eastward through the
overnight and affecting the area early in the morning. There`s a lot of
time from now to these potential systems so lots could change. But
it looks like the nearly zonal flow aloft will favor a bit more
active of a pattern as periodic shortwaves quickly track across the country.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2019

Low MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the early this
afternoon, lifting to MVFR or VFR as some showers move into the
area. Overnight, there is a chance clouds lower again to low MVFR
or even IFR. Winds will be light from the north through the day
but come light and variable overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB



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