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000
FXUS63 KEAX 061117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry today with closer to normal temperatures.

- More showers and storms possible Wednesday afternoon-overnight.

- Increasing potential for widespread rainfall Saturday/ Saturday
night.

The blocking pattern in the upper-levels remains with the upper
ridge over the northern Plains into Canada and a weak upper low over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Additional stronger closed lows are
spinning off of California and the Canadian Maritimes. This has
jammed up any progression to the upper pattern up for days/
nearly a week. The upper pattern will evolve slightly over the
next several days with a potentially more significant change next
week.

For today, a combination of slightly warmer air a loft and surface
temperatures several degrees cooler, along with poorer low-level
moisture, will really reduce the chances for any storms today.
Models also suggest a weak surface high moving into the area.
Forecast soundings show little, if any, CAPE and where there is a
sliver of CAPE there is some inhibition to overcome. Without any
notable forcing mechanism it looks far more likely to stay dry
today than to see any showers or storms. 1000-850mb thicknesses
suggest temperatures should be several degrees cooler today with
highs in the middle to upper 80s vs upper 80s to near 90.

For Wednesday, it still looks like a backdoor cold front will move
through the area during the afternoon to overnight hours. The upper
ridge over the northern Plains weakens and drifts slightly
southwestward. This allows the large closed low over the Canadian
Maritimes to retrograde into New England with stronger upper flow
diving southward along and east the Mississippi River. This will
help push the cold front southwestward through the forecast area
from the afternoon hours across northeastern MO into the overnight
hours across eastern KS and western MO. Models have trended a bit
more unstable with slightly better deep-layer shear. Deep-layer
shear now looks to be in the 25-30kt range. The increased shear
is a result of the stronger flow aloft shifting further west
around the closed upper low over New England. While the threat of
severe weather still looks low, there may be some storm
organization and resultant increased potential for strong storms
with potential for strong winds marginally severe hail.

Precipitation chances may linger into Thursday as the front stalls
across central to eastern KS. This may lead to some showers and
storms in our far western zones Thursday afternoon. It seems more
likely that any precipitation will be confined to areas west of our
forecast area given the drier air advecting into the area from
northeast behind the front. The drier air mass will result in
lower humidity values and help make the mid to upper 80 degree
readings Thursday and Friday more pleasant. Low-level flow becomes
more southerly to southwesterly Saturday. This will help advect
moisture back into the area. After that, it seems we`ll be at the
confluence of a subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward
out of KS and a weak front sliding southward Saturday
afternoon/evening. This should allow for widespread showers and
storms to develop. Probabilities have increased since yesterday at
this time. Probabilistic guidance shows a greater than 50% chance
for half an inch of rain in the 24 hours ending 12Z Sunday. Prior
guidance had shown about a coin flip for a quarter inch of rain.
On the higher end of the QPF spectrum, probabilities have also
increased for rainfall exceeding an inch. With yesterday`s
guidance this was around a 20% chance. Tonight`s guidance
indicates about a 30% chance. This increased probability for
higher rain amounts is welcomed given the ongoing drought
conditions across the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023

VFR conditions with very light (generally 5 knots or less) and
variable winds are expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...BMW