Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 280721
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
221 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 221 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2022

Key messages:

- Above normal temperatures for the second half of the work week
  however dangerous heat is not expected.

- Thunderstorms chances will return Friday with continuing chances
  through the weekend. Severe potential appears to be low.


Discussion:

Surface high pressure over the area this morning will shift to the
east by the afternoon and we will get a return to southerly flow.
This will allow temperatures to return to near normal today with
highs in the mid 80s. A upper level ridge, with its axis currently
centered over the central Rockies, will continue to shift eastward
today into Wednesday. Wednesday, the ridge axis will move overhead
with increased WAA at the surface. This will allow temperatures to
climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. On Thursday, a upper level
shortwave trough will traverse the central US/Canadian border
flattening the upper level ridge across the region however,
continued strong WAA over the area will aid in temperatures rising
into the lower 90s.

Friday, a upper level trough will dig from the northern central
Plains into the Upper Midwest sending a sagging cold front into the
area. This front will be the focus for a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Some question as to how long
storm chances may linger through the holiday weekend as the EC keeps
the front draped over the area through Sunday, continuing storm
chances. The GFS, by Sunday, pushes the front through the forecast
area and has surface high pressure building in to the area keeping
conditions dry. However, by the Fourth of July holiday, both models
have the area firmly entrenched under surface high pressure keeping
conditions dry with seasonable highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Very light
easterly winds at the moment will become southerly early Tuesday
morning, with light winds continuing.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...BMW


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