Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 252312
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

While this rainfall is nice, and much needed, these temperatures
are not as great compared to the last two days. Temperatures did
make it into the 50s and 60s early this morning, but since the
rain moved in, temperatures have dropped a few degrees. So far,
those in far western MO and far eastern KS have received up to
three tenths of an inch of rain with another two tenths possible
before everything is said and done. The rain will continue moving
southeast, really only impacting those south and west of
Kirksville. The rain should exit the KC Metro around sunset and
the rest of our area by midnight tonight.

Thursday should be a pretty nice spring day as a shortwave ridge and
surface high pressure move through the area. Some clouds will move
in in the afternoon, but temperatures should still get into the
upper 60s. Thursday night, a weak boundary and a quick moving
shortwave trough, currently over MT, will move southeast across
the Midwest. All models depict pretty dry air at the surface as
this system moves through, so with that and the weak boundary, we
don`t anticipate rain chances anymore.

The well-advertised upper level ridging and surface high are still
on track to bring us gorgeous weather for Friday through early next
week. Temperatures will start off in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday
and should warm into the upper 70s, approaching 80, by Monday.

On Monday, we should transition to the warm sector of a developing
low. This will be in conjunction with a deep upper level low moving
through the western U.S. While there is still time for things to
change, this looks to be our next chance for storms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

There will be a quick rise to the IFR/MVFR ceilings currently over
the area from the north to the south as the system finally moves
out. I expect IFR conditions south of the Missouri River initially
with MVFR ceilings up north of MCI. It appears the ceilings will
last slightly longer than the guidance is indicating, but by 2-3z
all the stations should be VFR with the exception of KIXD which
will take another hour to clear out. With clearing skies and light
winds tonight there is a chance fog could form up west and north
of Kansas City with the ground being wet. All fog formation would
be shallow and not last long after sunrise, but could reduce TAF
locations to MVFR before sunrise. Once sunrise occurs the area
should quickly reach VFR and stay there through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham


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