Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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688
FXUS63 KEAX 132332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2019

Light winds and clear skies tonight with possible frost over
northern Missouri as temps drop into the mid to lower 30s. A lee-
side low pressure system will develop Monday allowing some WAA to
work its way into our area with southerly flow. We`ll warm up into
lower 70s in the afternoon for probably the nicest weather of the
week.

A weak cold front will push through the region Monday night into
Tuesday allowing a slightly cooler airmass to push into our area mid
week. There could be some light drizzle over central Missouri
Tuesday morning, with a small chance of elevated storms (bases near
10kft) in the afternoon. The drop in temperatures will be gradual
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday and then down
into the upper 50s on Wednesday. As the surface high shifts east and
winds return from the south we will once again warm back up into the
60s and 70s to end the work week. There is still a signal in the
guidance for some possible PoPs Friday night into Saturday morning
as a cold front pushes through the area before it stalls over
southern Missouri.

A deep shortwave trough will move into the Rockies Saturday
night. This will cause cyclogenesis over SE Colorado and the
stalled cold front to return as a warm front Sunday morning as it
moves into Iowa. Models show this low deepening quickly, with our
area being in the warm sector through Sunday and a cold frontal
passage Sunday evening. This deep trough over the central plains
could help set up a decent severe weather pattern over KS and MO
and will need to be monitored as we get closer to next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SUN OCT 13 2019

VFR conds with mostly clr skies are expected thru the pd. Light
and variable winds tonight will increase out of the SSE to around
10kts by late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...73



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