Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 302051

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
351 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Issued at 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2020

Broad area of surface high pressure in place over the forecast area
today. This has given support for mostly clear skies, however there
has been some mid to upper level clouds overspreading the southern
and western zones. Return flow on the backside of the ridge has
caused surface winds to response more to the east and southeast,
which will eventually be responsible for some moisture influx into
the area. The rain chances for this evening and overnight will
depend heavily on how far north the low and mid level moisture can
surge into the drier air associated with the surface ridge. Model
progs have come further and further south with the northward extent
of the rain with progressive runs, so have relegated PoPs more
toward the southern row or two rows of counties, and certainly south
of I-70. While there may be some radar echoes further north toward
the Kansas City metro and the I-70 corridor the significantly dry
low levels should evaporate any mid level precipitation that forms
before reaching the surface. Another area of precipitation to watch
is currently over the central High Plains in the form of very weak
thunderstorms. These appear to be in response to a fairly strong low
level jet over western Kansas. A weakening of the H85 low through
the day will cause that jet to gradually weaken, and those storms
should weaken and dissipate prior to reaching our western zones.
Thus, have gone with slight chance precipitation for the western
zones, north of HWY 50 for this evening and overnight, but generally
expecting dry conditions along and north of I-70 corridor.

As the mid level wave responsible for the light precipitation moves
off into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys mid level ridging
will become the predominant weather influencer for the middle part
of the week. A low level trough will deepen through the middle part
of the week, causing a gradual uptick in southerly winds by
Wednesday and Thursday. In the mid levels the ridging that will
prevail for Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to southwest flow
aloft for the latter part of the week as a longer wave trough forms
over the western US. It will take a while, but with persistent
southerly flow in the lower levels useful moisture will eventually
make it back into the region by Thursday. We could see some
isentropically driven showers form as early as Thursday, but the
better chance for widespread rain and perhaps some thunderstorms
will come Thursday night into Friday morning as a surface cold front
pushes through the area. At this point in time this does not appear
to be concerning for severe weather. After a bit of a break in the
action for the weekend, the pattern looks to come back perhaps a bit
stronger in the extended range, namely early next week. There is
plenty of uncertainty, but models do seem to be hinting at a solid
warm sector building into the area, with rich moisture and southwest
flow aloft. This could bring the prospects of at least a period or
two of severe weather. The uncertainty in these parameters
materializing in the first place is fairly low, so the certainty on
any kind of timing or magnitude is minuscule at this point. At any
rate, starting Thursday it does appear that there will be at least a
periodic active period going into the middle part of next week.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2020

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. Clouds and rain
showers will move in tonight, but the moisture will be fighting
dry low level air being advected in from high pressure to our
north. Most of the area should stay dry with the exception of
west-central MO and east-central KS who will likely see a little
bit of rain. Winds will become variable overnight for our western
areas tonight as a weak warm front moves north into the area. We
should become mostly clear tomorrow morning as high pressure move
through the area.




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