Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 102046

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Issued at 148 PM CST MON DEC 10 2018

A fairly quiet early to middle part of the the week is expected,
as mid level ridging moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. At the
surface south/southwest winds will keep things right about normal
for early to mid December, however with the upcoming shortwave
ridge, temperatures should get a bit warmer for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Current forecast highs for Tuesday are in the upper 40s
to lower 50s for Tuesday, however some passing cirrus or
cirrostratus may make widespread 50s a bit ambitious. That being
said, it will still be a nice stretch of fair and warmer weather
considering how the early part of this cold season has started.

The next chance for appreciable precipitation comes Thursday
through most of the day. A deep southward penetration from a mid
level jet is expected to carve a fairly potent trough into the
 quasi-zonal flow over the CONUS. Models continue to indicated
this trough becoming closed off over the southern High Plains by
Wednesday night, then ejecting northeast through the southern
Plains Thursday. Warm and moist air advection will move into the
region in anticipation of the mid level wave and should cloud up
the skies as early as Wednesday evening and Wednesday night as the
moisture moves north. Deep saturation is not anticipated before
the trough arrives, however there does appear to be the chance for
some very light drizzle Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Temperatures should be above freezing Thursday morning, especially
south of I-70 so freezing precipitation as the warm/moist air
moves in should be minimized, however there could be some cold air
still in place along or just north of I-70, which could make for
some slick conditions on Thursday morning before the warmer air
moves in. While models have largely come around to a little more
consistency for widespread rain across the area on Thursday the
better chance for the higher amounts will come along and south of
HWY 36, with tapering off amounts toward far northern Missouri.
Overall through the day on Thursday we can anticipate generally
1/4" to 1/2" along and south of I-70, with perhaps a tenth to a
quarter up to HWY 36. As the cold air filters in behind an
advancing cold front some lingering precipitation on the backside
of the precipitation shield may change over to a light snow or
light freezing drizzle, however accumulations are expected to be
rather minor. The big trough will slowly eject northeastward into
the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys for Friday the backside of
the mid level low may keep cloud cover in play for the eastern
half of the CWA for Friday and Saturday.

The remainder of the forecast period through next weekend should
remain fair despite a somewhat unsettled mid level pattern.
Numerous shortwave troughs will push into the area, but given the
largely dry air mass there shouldn`t be much in the way of
precipitation production. Temperatures will be near normal through
the weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST MON DEC 10 2018

Expecting VFR conditions to persist through the remainder of the
forecast period. High level clouds should keep fog at bay tonight,
but KSTJ is being rather stubborn getting rid of the morning haze.
Expect that to be gone by the early afternoon with minimal, if
any, VIS restrictions.




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