Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 241736
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

Key Message:

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday and Friday with strong to
severe storms possible.

- At least two rounds of thunderstorms are expected today. The first
round will move in this morning with another round anticipated later
this afternoon and into Thursday night. Severe weather and heavy
rainfall will be possible with each round of thunderstorms.

- A flash flood watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning for much of the area.

Discussion:

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and continuing
through Friday. The first of these will be moving into northwest
Missouri early this morning as it pushes southward out of eastern
Nebraska. The primary severe threat with this early line of
storms has been strong winds, and we will likely see this trend
continue as it moves into far northwest Missouri. As it continues
to push southward, it will be moving into a less favorable
environment and with a weakening LLJ, we should start to see it
weaken and blow itself out by mid to late morning.

Attention then turns towards this afternoon and evening and how
quickly we can recover from this mornings MCS. Models have backed
off on high temperatures today given morning convection and
increased cloud cover, so have nudged high temperatures down
several degrees. However, if we can rid some of the cloud cover by
this afternoon, temperatures will likely need to be bumped back
up. Regardless, the stage looks to be set for robust convection to
break out near a surface low that will be positioned over
northeast Kansas and along the attendant warm front that will
extend across northern Missouri and then down towards southeastern
Missouri by late this afternoon and early evening. An outflow
boundary from the morning convection will also come into play by
providing another focus for storm initiation. If we can recover
fully by this afternoon, moderate CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg
and deep layer shear profiles will be supportive of robust
updrafts resulting in severe threats for large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a few tornadoes. Flash flooding will also be a
concern as multiple rounds of heavy rain move over the same area
today and again tomorrow. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
from this afternoon through Friday morning for much of the area,
and may need to be extended through Friday afternoon and evening.

Depending on how convection plays out today will have an impact on
Friday`s storm chances as the front slowly works southward and
the outflow boundary from tonight`s MCS. Hi-res models have
another round of moderate to heavy rain developing along the front
Friday afternoon before the cold pool strengthens enough to push
the storms and heavy rain towards southern Missouri. Friday`s
severe threat looks to be mainly during the early stages of the
afternoon and evening convection with wind, hail, and heavy rain
the primary threats. Uncertainty remains on where the outflow
boundary will stall and the position of the front on Friday, and
will have an impact on where convection initiates.

Storm chances will continue into the weekend with several more
rounds of showers and storms possible through early next week as
upper trough stalls over the Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

For the 18Z TAF...Storms that moved through this morning have left
variable cloud cover behind, which has primed the region for
another set of stronger storms starting later this afternoon in
northwest Missouri, spreading south into Kansas City this evening.
Expect variable CIGs this afternoon with mostly MVFR to VFR
conditions, but might see an occasional brief drop into IFR,
though I kept IFR out of the terminals for now. Otherwise, winds
will be a bit variable in the wake of the storms, but in general
should be from the south to southeast, ranging from 5 to 10 knots
to gusting at 25 knots. Confidence is low on how all this
evolves, so anticipate lots of TAF amendments today.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday
     morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday
     morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...PietrychaP
Aviation...Cutter


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