Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

Patchy cloud coverage tonight along with light winds and a moist
airmass will help do develop some patchy fog throughout the region.
Some of these areas could have visibilities below 1 mile around
sunrise, but should burn off quickly with heating. Surface high
pressure over IA will keep surface and low level winds out of the NE
developing a low level thermal boundary from central MO to the KS
border. A closed upper low and associated shortwave trough will
push through over this boundary providing some steeper lapse rates
and extra lift along this lower boundary. The forcing in the low
levels is very low, but may just be enough to focus some shower
and thunderstorms over this region in the late morning to early
afternoon. There is uncertainty to placement and intensity of
these storms with the weak forcing, but if they do form up they
will be very short-lived with stronger downdraft winds being the
main concern. Secondary convection is likely if a significant
outflow boundary can be produced from the primary storms.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower 80s
today and through the end of the week with a slight increase each
day. High pressure builds into the region Thursday with upper
level ridging keeping the area dry through Friday afternoon.

A shortwave trough will eject out of the souther Rockies Friday
evening helping to develop a surface low over western Kansas and
southerly return flow over the area. As this low deepens a warm
frontal boundary will develop over eastern Kansas and NW Missouri
overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  A nocturnal LLJ will
develop over the area helping to provide some isentropic accent
along this elevated boundary Saturday morning and increase PoPs over
most of the CWA.  The medium range models start to differ in their
solution around this timeframe, but the overall consensus is that
this warm front will lift north towards the IA border in the
afternoon with the main focus of convection along this boundary in
northern Missouri. The GFS solution for this timeframe indicates
there will be the potential for severe weather with 2500-3000 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 30 to 40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. While this is still
three days out, this scenario needs to be monitored as the weekend
approaches. This large area of instability and convective
development along the warm frontal boundary Saturday afternoon could
lead to a MCS formation over SE Nebraska with the flow moving this
through northern MO late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The
remnants of this system will linger early Sunday morning but will
quickly move off to the east allowing some slightly cooler air to
move into the area behind the cold front with highs only in the
upper 70s. This slightly cooler trend will continue into Monday with
weak high pressure and a NE wind flow over the region. A shortwave
trough will move through Monday night into Tuesday bringing
precipitation back into the region. Sounding profiles indicate the
severe potential with this system to be low.  Another shortwave
trough will help develop a stronger LLJ over central and eastern
Kansas Wednesday afternoon providing more instability than Tuesday
and may need to be watched for severe weather if this pattern
continues in future solutions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

Patchy fog throughout the area will cause some MVFR and isolated
cases of IFR visibility for the first hour of the period.
Currently the main fog bank looks to be near MCI and south into
the IXD area, but there is an area moving up the Missouri River
north of Kansas City. There is also a MVFR ceiling pushing through
western Missouri which will effect the TAF locations, mainly south
of KSTJ for a couple hours this morning before it dissipates. VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the period once this
cloud deck dissipates. There will be a period of scattered showers
and thunderstorms that push through the terminal locations in the
afternoon, but due to the scattered nature of these storms only
VCTS has been added to the TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham



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