Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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406
FXUS63 KEAX 250500
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 222 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

This afternoon/tonight: Focus this afternoon remains on the
potential for scattered thunderstorms for roughly the southwest half
of the forecast area. MCV evident over south central Kansas slowly
moving east will allow for convection to develop this afternoon near
and in advance of the feature within a broad warm sector. Anemic
shear profiles and modest instability will help mitigate widespread
severe weather concerns, although a stronger storm with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out. Activity will tend to wane during the
evening with boundary layer cooling. A second round of
thunderstorms will be possible late overnight to around sunrise,
although confidence is lower with scenario. Several model members
develop convection during the late evening over NW KS, and send
this cluster ESEward. There is some potential for additional
convection, perhaps from thunderstorm outflow, to spawn renewed
thunderstorms near or across the western sections of the forecast
area late tonight.

Friday: Uncertainty remains to the aforementioned coverage of
convection at sunrise across the forecast area, and this will likely
have influence on the degree of destabilization for later in the day.
An upper trough over the northern CONUS will provide a glancing shot
of ascent as a weak cold front approaches far NW MO before stalling.
Several models suggest redevelopment ahead of the front, perhaps
focused on residual outflow/differential heating boundaries within
the warm sector. Deep layer shear remains weak, but assuming
moderate instability can develop by afternoon in the wake of
potential AM storms, a few strong storms will be possible with brief
strong wind gusts and small hail. Convection should clear the area
during the late evening and overnight hours.

Saturday and beyond: Heights will rise and upper ridging builds into
the central CONUS. The end result will be a continued period of hot
and humid conditions. Afternoon highs will warm into the 90s for
most areas during the holiday weekend, with heat indicies reaching
the middle 90s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

The upper level shortwave that has allowed a line of
thunderstorms to develop and move across central KS will cont to
move east into the local area. Hi-res models suggest thunderstorm
redevelopment over the terminals between 09Z-13Z and as such has a
tempo for -tsra during that timeframe. Thunderstorms should move
out of the area tomorrow morning with the remainder of most of
the TAF pd staying dry although storms may be possible late in the
TAF pd. Winds will be out of the south btn 5-10kts overnight and
veer to the SW around 10kts tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...73



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