Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151117

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 318 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

The synoptic setup today is looking to deliver one of the nicest
days of the year. A shortwave trough will exit the Rockies leading
to cyclogenesis over western Kansas creating southerly winds and
WAA, while a mid to upper level shortwave ridge moves overhead keeping
skies clear. This low level WAA and warmer 850hPa temps near 10C
will help drive temperatures into the lower to mid 70s south of
the MO River and into the lower 60s across northern MO. A rise in
dewpoint temperatures and lighter winds today will help to
alleviate the fire weather concerns, although fuels are still dry
so burning will need to be done with caution. As the surface low
deepens and moves NE an area of lower level isentropic accent will
develop ahead of the developing surface warm front over Kansas
leading to possible elevated showers and just enough MUCAPE will
be around to have isolated thunder as this elevated boundary
pushes through. This feature will move quickly to the east
allowing most of the area to get some much needed rain, although
QPF totals remain below a quarter inch for the first wave of

The low will quickly become vertically stacked slowing down the
eastward movement as it intensifies Friday. The pressure gradient
over the area will tighten quickly Friday morning causing breezy
conditions with sustained winds near 20mph in northern Missouri with
gusts in the upper 30s. A true surface warm front will develop
Friday afternoon over eastern KS then push through Central Missouri.
This push of lower level WAA will coincide with cooling temperatures
aloft rapidly destabilizing the atmosphere with MUCAPE values near
1000 J/kg along the boundary. This will lead to a better chance of
more organized convection south of the Missouri River and even a
marginal severe weather threat with plenty of shear in place as it
pushes through. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main
threats with this boundary. Overrunning of this warm frontal
boundary will lead to consistent rainfall over northern Missouri
where up to 0.5" of QPF is possible by the end of Friday between
0.25-0.5" toward the KC Metro area.

Colder air will funnel into the region on the backside of this low
as it moves east dropping high temperatures south of the Missouri
River near 15 degrees into the 50s Saturday.  Some light showers may
occur along the dissipating occluded boundary over northern
Missouri, but little QPF is expected with this feature. A steady
northerly wind near 10-15 mph Saturday morning will drop wind chill
values into the 30s for Saturday morning events around the area.
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will be short lived as
another shortwave trough exits the Rockies and a wash rinse repeat
type pattern sets up for Sunday night into Monday. This system will
have a more southerly track keeping our area on the cooler side of
the system as it passes through with the occluded boundary stalling
over the area most of Monday. This quasi-stationary nature to the
boundary will allow for a decent precipitation accumulation with
steady rain and isolated thunder as it pushes through. Storm total
QPF for this system through Tuesday morning indicates widespread 0.5-
0.75" amounts for the region. A secondary shortwave trough pushes
through Tuesday morning on the backside leading to possibly higher
totals over NW Missouri. High pressure and upper level ridging build
into the region Wednesday with seasonable temperatures through the


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

A strong low level jet overhead is creating LLWS around 1000ft at
all the terminals. This area of strong winds is expected to weaken
and move south allowing the LLWS to end near 14Z. Winds will
gradually shift from the SSW to the ESE throughout the period as a
low pressure system moves towards the area. Rain showers will be
possible with a lower MVFR ceiling towards the end of the period
near 09Z. Areas south of the Missouri River could see some
isolated thunderstorms with these showers as they pass through.




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