Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 201154
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018


.Discussion...
Issued at 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

Early morning surface analysis shows frontal boundary generally
extending from southwestern Iowa to west-central Missouri and down
into south-central Oklahoma. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
were noted north of the front, primarily across eastern Nebraska and
Iowa. Several thunderstorm complexes were also noted south of the
front in southeastern Kansas and central Missouri...and a much
larger complex was noted in central Oklahoma moving to the
northeast. Expect this southern activity to continue into the
morning hours with low-level jet axis positioned from central
Texas and curving up into southeast and central Missouri. The
northern activity may also be able to sustain itself into the
morning hours with mid-level perturbation moving through and
upper jet positioned over the area.

Later this morning should see a bit of an uptick in activity with
complex moving out of Oklahoma and up into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri. This activity will move east with time and we may
see a brief respite before the next round during the late afternoon
and evening with a shortwave trough ejecting into the Plains. We may
see some breaks in cloud cover this afternoon which could allow for
a bit of recovery and MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg. If this
happens, a stronger storm or two capable of large hail and strong
winds may be possible, especially near the frontal boundary. Storms
are expected to weaken around sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating.

Scattered showers may linger into Monday with weak mid-level trough
just north of the area. The front will be pushed south with high
pressure moving in behind. Cooler temperatures today but could see
some temperatures swing upward by a few degrees from current
forecast if cloud cover breaks over a location. Tomorrow looks
pleasant with showers possible in the morning but gradual clearing
by afternoon from west to east. The remainder of the week will
see periodic rain chances as several perturbations move through
the flow. Best chances for more widespread rain looks to occur
late in the week in response to trough ejecting out onto the
Northern Plains and attendant cold front moving through.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

Another tricky TAF period with storms moving into southeast Kansas
and southwest Missouri. This activity will gradually move north
and east through the morning hours. May see a brief respite from
storms by 17-19Z with another round possible after 20Z. Storms
will decrease in intensity and cover around sunset with loss of
diurnal heating but could see see scattered showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm continuing into Monday morning. If a storm
does move over a terminal will likely see vsby decrease to 3-5 SM
or lower. IFR/MVFR cigs developing at several of the terminals but
cigs should rise is storms move over the terminal. There is a
possibility of some fog developing after 06Z given the recent rain
and surface high pressure moving in behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pietrycha
Aviation...Pietrycha


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