639
AXPZ20 KNHC 101603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75.5W to 12N97W to 09N109W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N109W to 05N129W to beyond 08.5N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N
to 12.5N between 81W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N W of 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NE Pacific ridge is centered well NW of the area and extends
southward into the tropical Pacific, yielding a weak pressure
gradient across the regional waters. Gentle to moderate NW to N
winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, and
extend S to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico as well as inside the
Gulf of California. Recent satellite altimeter data shows seas
are in the 6-8 ft range offshore Baja California, dominated by NW
swell. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in
the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. In the Gulf of California, seas of
1-3 ft are noted, except to 4 ft in SW swell across the entrance.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of
next week. Northwest swell moving through the regional waters
will maintain seas to 8 ft through early Sat before gradually
subsiding to 6 ft or less through early next week. Gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere
across the open offshore waters of Mexico through the middle of
next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak low pressure prevails across the northeastern Tropical
Pacific and the adjacent western Caribbean today. This pattern is
producing gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds south of the
monsoon trough, roughly along 10N-11N, with light to gentle winds
N of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell is producing seas in
the 5-6 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and
3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern is
expected for the next several days. Expect gentle to moderate
S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough through the middle of
next week. New southerly swell moving into the regional waters
today will build seas to 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands
through Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with
moderate seas of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1031 mb near 45N137W
southward into the tropical NE Pacific waters. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas over this area are in the
6-8 ft range in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are
elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7
ft range, except to 8 ft N of 24N between 115W and 122W. Gentle
to moderate winds are found S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough,
with seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well N of the region will drift
westward and weaken through Sun. This will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, in the trade wind zone
N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W through Sun, before seas
subside slightly through early next week. NW swell, producing seas
to 8 ft, dominates the waters N of 24N and E of 125W today, and
will gradually subside to less than 8 ft early Sat, then to 6 ft
or less through early next week.

$$
Stripling