Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
835 FXUS63 KICT 120807 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 307 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing rain chances today and cooler temperatures - Areas of showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday - Another chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A strong mid and upper level low pressure system is now moving into the region. Moisture advection ahead of this system is good, especially at the 700mb level which is shows a strong and long fetch of moisture advection from the Gulf Coast. This orientation is driving the high PW values of 1-1.5 inches across the region. This high PW value is well above normal for this time of year and strongly indicates the potential for wide spread rain event. The ensembles are generally in agreement that most areas of the CWA will get a good amount of rain. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are likely through Monday afternoon/evening. Locally higher amounts are also possible. Thunderstorm activity with this system is likely to be more scattered with a few strong storms possible. During the afternoon Monday some pea to dime hail is possible with the stronger storms. The mid and upper levels are not conducive to support severe thunderstorms at this time and as such, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures today and Monday are expected to be lower than yesterday. Tuesday, some ridging will return and allow temperatures to rise again. That said, expect only Western Kansas to recover rapidly and reach the 80s with the Central and Eastern Kansas likely remaining in the mid 70s. Areas further east in the lower 70s as the clouds will be slower to clear. Wednesday, the next weather system will approach the CWA. Most of the ensembles are indicating this next system will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms. Orientation of this system is also not conducive to severe thunderstorm activity but it does appear it will be more likely to have strong storms with small hail (less than an inch). Confidence is low at this point (<30%) especially considering the ensembles are indicating the moisture needed to drive the system will only arrive "just in time". This puts doubt in the possibility of wide spread rain at this point. If the moisture does not arrive in time, it will be difficult for another wide spread rain event to occur. Some of the long range ensembles hint at this possibility. Given the uncertainty at this stage, confidence in the forecast beyond Tuesday is low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the first six to eight hours of the TAF period today. The next weather system will be pushing into the region after about 14Z today. KRSL and KGBD will be the first terminals to see any rain. Expecting this system to be more shower activity with embedded thunderstorms during the early afternoon. As the day progresses, KSLN, KHUT and KICT will likely start to see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Showers will be the primary weather with some temporary thunderstorm conditions. At this time, only confidence to place PROB30 due to the variances in the ensembles. CIGs will likely become prevalent && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ELM