440
FXUS64 KMEG 111725
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A beautiful weekend is on tap with dry weather and mild
temperatures today followed by another cool night. Expect
increasing clouds on Sunday with highs in the lower 80s. There are
chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Clear and cool night is underway across the Mid-South with temps
in the 50s and light winds. Some patchy fog is occurring around
Memphis. Another nice day is on tap for the Mid-South. A mid-
level trough moving through the Great Lakes will send a
reinforcing cold front across the region today. This feature will
have little impact other than to shift winds back around to the NW
and increase them to 10 mph or so. A couple of CAMs develop an
isolated shower near the TN/MS border this afternoon but given the
very dry airmass in place this seems unlikely. Highs will climb
to around 80.

Another cool night is expected with lows mainly in the 50s by
Sunday morning with some lower 50s along the TN River. Sunday
will start off sunny but clouds will start to stream in from the
approaching system. Winds will turn southerly by Sunday afternoon
and dewpoints will start to climb a bit with highs in the lower
80s.

An upper low that will be located over the Four Corners region
this weekend will push into the Southern Plains on Monday with
numerous to widespread, initially elevated, showers and scattered
thunderstorms spreading into the Mid-South. The associated cold
front will push across Arkansas late Monday afternoon and evening
and interact with an increasingly moist and unstable airmass
which may trigger a few strong to severe thunderstorms over areas
SW of a JBR-MEM-TUP line. Convective redevelopment could occur
Tuesday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms east of the
MS River, before the front exits into Middle TN and northern AL.

We get a break on Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging builds
over the area with dry weather and temps in the upper 70s to
around 80.

The next upper trough pushes into the region by the end of the
week with more chances for showers and thunderstorms. The general
idea is that the trough pushes east of the region by the weekend
but 00z models are not in great agreement long term. Ensemble
forecasts are holding on to at least small chances for rain
through the weekend though uncertainty is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A dry reinforcing front is currently moving through MEM, MKL, and
JBR. No clouds or rain are expected, but occasional wind gusts to
15 kts are possible. Surface high pressure will become centered
over the region late tonight, resulting in light and variable
winds areawide. Winds will turn around to the south near the end
of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3