339
FXUS64 KOUN 190352
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Plenty of sunshine and warm conditions are in place this afternoon
with temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Relatively
light winds and dewpoints near 60 degrees are making it feel a bit
warmer as well. There is still a very low chance (~10%) for
storms near the Kansas border through the remainder of the
afternoon, but expect the bulk of this activity will remain to our
north.

Moisture increases further over the area on Sunday as a surface low
deepens to our west and southerly flow strengthens during the day.
This will help set the stage for thunderstorm development as a
shortwave approaches the area during the afternoon, providing
additional lift. Isolated convection appears possible along a
dryline that will be located near the western OK and TX panhandle
border, with additional convection expected to form across
southern Kansas where capping will be weaker and lift from the
wave will be greater. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards, with a window for an isolated tornado as the low
level jet strengthens during the early evening, especially if any
isolated supercells can become established. Upscale growth of
thunderstorms across southern Kansas then appears likely as we
head later into the evening, with potential for southeastward
propagation into northern or perhaps central Oklahoma Sunday
night, bringing a risk for damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Thunderstorm chances decrease on Monday as shortwave ridging moves
overhead, with temperatures remaining quite warm, especially to the
west of the dryline across southwest OK and western north TX where
highs will approach 100 degrees.

A stronger shortwave trough will the approach the area on Tuesday,
but the timing of the wave appears to place it east of the area by
peak daytime heating. This could act to limit thunderstorm coverage
until a cold front enters the area later in the evening.
Nevertheless, with a moist and highly unstable airmass in place
severe thunderstorms will be possible across mainly central and
eastern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

The cold front is expected to make it into southeast OK on
Wednesday before stalling, with additional thunderstorm chances
expected here Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This
front will try to lift northward on Thursday ahead of another
shortwave, but its northward progress will greatly depend on
existing convection Wednesday night into Thursday morning, leading
to a lot of uncertainty on where the front will end up during the
afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will once again be possible
Thursday afternoon and evening along the front.

Storm chances will then likely continue off and on Friday into the
weekend as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place and
shortwaves ripple across the area, though predictability regarding
wave timing is low from this range.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Light winds and mainly clear skies overnight. South winds will
increase quickly Sunday morning with gusts over 30kts expected
across western Oklahoma. Have introduced some precip chances after
00Z tomorrow evening at PNC/SWO as storms potentially move across
northern Oklahoma

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  89  69  91 /   0   0  30   0
Hobart OK         67  93  68  97 /   0  10  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  92  71  95 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           64  94  62  98 /  10  10  20   0
Ponca City OK     62  89  66  90 /   0  10  60   0
Durant OK         65  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30