047
FXUS63 KPAH 060716
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
216 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will generally increase in
  coverage and intensity potential by mid week. A severe storm
  outbreak is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Breezy south winds will pick up in similar fashion, offering
  30-35 mph gust potential Tuesday-Wednesday.

- A warm and relatively muggy air mass holds through mid week
  before a cool off with lower humidity returns spring like
  temperatures and dew points as we finish out the week and head
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A weakening open wave with its reflected surface inverted trof
slides across the area today, over an airmass of lower 60s dew
points that soup into the mid 60s over the course of the day as
temps push thru the 70s. The eastward tracking low sees the LLJ
shift eastward as well, which keeps highest pops there, perhaps
AOA NBM`s depiction, while in the far west, we`ll see a west-
to-east diminishing trend after early this morning, ie AOB the
NBM depictin. This has been collaborated and the forecast
adjusted accordingly. Shear and lapse rates are lacking so
(outside an isolated pulse storm) most of these are general
risk, mainly locally heavy downpour, showers/storms expected
today.

A (relative) pause in pops is still expected thru the first half
of the night as a teleconnected ridge moves across the area in
the wake of the departed open wave. However, by late tonight,
the first wave of positive vorticity advection from the parent
big storm system over the High Plains moves in from the north
and west on the nose of increasing upper level winds. We see the
shear and lapse rates begin to respond accordingly, and a
burgeoning chance of storms is incoming by 12Z Tuesday. A slight
risk of severe is still forecast for the area as these
dynamical features translate across the FA under a warm
sectoring environ. The noisy early day convection upstream may
retard later day diurnal/instability convective firing, as
better focus areas shift eastward. We like the broad-brushed
SLGT for now but conditional within it is understood a better
chance north and west early, transitioning to a better chance
north and east by late in the day. We could see these areas
(whether within or just beyond our CWA bounds) as the best
focused areas for stronger storm activity.

Another relative pause in pops occurs late Tuesday night as this
energy shifts eastward/beyond our effective reach. Then the
focus turns to another best time chance for strong-severe
storms...still looking like Wednesday afternoon-evening. Warm
sector convection may begin firing a little earlier, by mid
morning, while the late day convective outbreak may extend into
or thru the night. Bulk shear increases to 50+ kts and lapse
rates balloon upward to 8C, so this would appear to offer our
best/strongest dynamical potential for a severe outbreak, not
discounting the Tuesday evolution. We can see the Wednesday
slight risk being upgraded with time, but it`s still a pretty
broadly painted areal depiction for pinpointing exactly
where...stay tuned on that.

All modes severe cannot be ruled out either Tuesday or Wednesday,
and heavy rainfall potential capable of localized flooding
heightens each day as well, also peaking Wednesday-Wednesday
night. In addition, the non thunderstorm gradient winds spike
Tuesday-Wednesday as well, with gust potential just shy of
Advisory criteria.

Beginning Thursday, we`ll see the mean trof make its passage and
a transition toward a much cooler/drier spring-like air mass
finishes out the week and extends into the weekend...with highs
generally in the 70s and dew points dropping thru the 50s to the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers/storms will swell again with diurnal
destabilization, with highest chances tracking west-to-east as
an open wave of low pressure lifts across the area. Anticipate
continued restricted CIGS/VSBYS til this can clear the terminals
later today into tonight, when Visual Flight Rules should
return to the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$