936
FXUS65 KPIH 140757
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Second shortwave arrives this afternoon. This shortwave is weaker
than the one that passed through on Monday and convection is
expected to be mainly limited to the lower/upper Snake Plain and
eastern highlands. Storms overachieved on Monday with several severe
level wind gusts noted. Unsure if we`ll see storms get that strong
once again this afternoon. Storms will be firing earlier in the day,
with most high res models showing initiation around 18z which could
limit the strength of the storms with not as much heating likely to
occur. Also the overall wind field looks a little lighter so there`s
less wind to work with. Still, think that storms could be zesty with
models showing some modest DCAPE to play with. Expect strongest
storms to fire from Craters to Mud Lake and then move southeast
across the Snake Plain, approaching Idaho Falls and Pocatello around
20z. Once again, CAPE looks limited to 1000 J/kg or less so think
hail is not as much of the threat as wind would be. Most activity
will be moving into Wyoming by 00z with an isolated storm or two
still possible across the upper Snake Plain into the early evening.
Lake wind advisory looks highly unlikely today with peak sustained
winds expected to be around 15 mph from the west this afternoon.
However, gusty outflows from thunderstorms could create rough chop.
With the activity moving through earlier in the day, highs today
look about 5 degrees cooler, roughly around 70 in the Snake Plain
and Magic Valley.

On Wednesday, can`t rule out a stray shower across the eastern
highlands as the trough pulls away. Most of the region should be dry
as a ridge starts to build into the area. Winds look downvalley
across the Snake Plain and we could reach lake wind advisory on the
weaker thresholds for northeast winds early in the day. However,
models show winds become light around midday and even turning
upvalley in the afternoon. So if we get to advisory levels the
better chances are in the morning. Temps Wednesday are just a touch
warmer with low to mid 70s likely across the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley.

13

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday. Thursday and Friday
still look pretty breezy, with a few showers/storms possible up
along the Divide. We will quickly flip the switch back the other way
starting this weekend. Temperatures remain on the warm side as
another low deepens and develops across the western U.S. While the
are differences in the exact evolution, there is very good agreement
between the GFS, ECMWF, and around 80% of the clusters through
Monday. Those remaining clusters hold steadfast onto a ridge just to
our west. Our Blend of Models forecast will show some lower chances
of showers and thunderstorms with afternoon highs holding in the 60s
and 70s. Breezy conditions are expected pretty much daily across
our part of the state. Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms are the main concern this afternoon with
storms likely impacting IDA and PIH around 20z, with some convection
developing around the terrain at DIJ a couple hours earlier. Winds
will start west or southwest at IDA and PIH, but convective
outflows will likely push winds to the north or northeast by late
afternoon with strong erratic gusts possible from the convection.
Thunderstorm chances at KPIH and KIDA fall off quickly after 01z.
KSUN and KBYI will likely remain storm-free this afternoon. Gusts to
25kts from the west are likely at BYI this afternoon. Considerable
uncertainty in winds at KSUN for the afternoon with some models
showing a weak front pushing through there this afternoon which
would keep the winds northwest or west, while some models still show
the typical weak upvalley wind developing this afternoon.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Portneuf and Blackfoot rivers remain the water ways
of concern, though forecasts continue to trend down with water
levels throughout the upcoming week despite a very slight uptick of
water levels on the Portneuf River over the last 24 hours.
McKaughan/13

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$