Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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499 FXUS64 KTSA 090520 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1220 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is expected to continue in the vicinity of the front as it moves east across the region. With the airmass already extremely unstable and very little if any cap in place, any storms that develop will have the potential to become severe rapidly. Giant hail and significant tornadoes will be the main concern with impressive deep layer shear above. The storms are expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front exits. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Most of the area will be dry on Thursday. However, there will be a small chance of showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon/evening as a storm system skirts the area to the south. High pressure is expected to prevail Friday into Saturday with dry conditions forecast area-wide. Shower/storm chances return Sunday and continue into early next week as an upper level low slowly moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 MVFR vsbys will be possible in patchy fog early in the valid period, mainly at KFYV. TSRA that develops this afternoon and evening is expected to remain south of KMLC/KFSM, so will leave any mention out with this issuance. Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail at all sites through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 84 57 78 53 / 10 10 0 0 MLC 81 57 77 53 / 20 10 0 0 BVO 78 49 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 80 50 75 50 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 77 50 72 51 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 78 53 75 52 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 76 50 73 51 / 0 0 0 0 F10 78 53 75 53 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 82 58 77 54 / 40 20 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23