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000
FXUS65 KTWC 152015
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 PM MST Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures give way to above normal
temperatures by the weekend as building high pressure leads to a
warming trend across SE AZ this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low pressure has steadily pushed out of the area
today, leaving behind cooler than normal temperatures and mostly clear
skies. Gusty afternoon winds stick around today due to the
tightened pressure gradient from the low pressure to our north.

The low makes way for some zonal upper-level flow with minor
ridging through the rest of the week. This will lead us into a
warming trend this week. Near normal temperatures Tuesday give way
to high temperatures 6-10 degrees above normal mid-week and into
the weekend. The lower valleys, including Tucson, will be creeping
back up towards the 90s by Thursday.

Looking further out, ensembles show some lower 500hPa heights
late next week, introducing a non-zero chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
Mostly clear skies with FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL after 16/05Z.
NWLY SFC winds at 15-20 kts for KDUG and 8-15 kts for KOLS/KTUS.
Diurnal trends continue with light and variable winds overnight.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across SE AZ with above normal
temperatures most of the week. Min RH values generally below 15%
in valleys, dropping to the single digits in the middle of the
week. Strong gusty winds today, with the strongest 15-30 mph east
of Tucson. Winds die down after today with highest wind speeds up
to 12 mph through Wednesday with breezy conditions Friday. Some
areas may reach critical to near critical fire weather conditions
today but otherwise, fire danger and ERCs are still low for this
time of year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Giralte

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