Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 222347 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
647 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions likely through the next 24 hours,
though some scattered low-level clouds may develop late tonight
through Friday morning. Southeast winds will strengthen again
Friday morning and afternoon with some gusts over 30 knots being


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): A mix of sun and clouds
across the lower valley this afternoon has helped warm much of the
area up into the middle and upper 80s. Winds have increased a bit
with the increase in pressure gradient at the surface between trough
out west and ridging out east.

Southerly low level flow will continue to increase through much of
the short term. Although southerly (more moist) winds are expected,
think that during the afternoon Friday RH values will drop (as dry
air mixes down) just enough to produce a limited risk for fire
danger. Winds will certainly support it, however, again with the
lackluster RH values think the overall threat will remain limited,
especially over Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr Counties.

A warming trend will continue at the surface as high pressure aloft
sits over northern Mexico throughout the short term period.
This will promote warmer surface temperatures away from the cooler
sea surface temperatures. Overall, fairly benign weather outside of
the increase in surface winds.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): A broad 500mb ridge across
central Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday will
amplify across the central United States Sunday and move eastward
Monday as a 500mb trough develops and moves across the western
U.S. through the weekend. At the surface...low pressure across
Missouri Saturday will slide eastward Sunday as low pressure
develops along the lee side of the Rockies ahead of the upper
level trough developing across the western United States. Very
warm and breezy to windy conditions will prevail across the CWA through
the weekend into early next week with not much in the way of rain

A 500mb low is expected to cut-off from the upper level trough
across the western U.S. Monday into Tuesday and drift southward
into the southwest U.S./northern Mexico Tuesday and drift eastward
Wednesday. This will provide the potential for thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall across northern and central portions of Texas late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Once the upper low moves eastward across
the southern plains Thursday...a Pacific cold front will provide a
slight chance to chance of thunderstorms across deep south TX late
Wednesday through Thurs morning before drier and slightly cooler
air filters into the area in the wake of the front.

MARINE (Tonight through Friday Night): Winds were increasing
across the Laguna and nearshore waters this afternoon. Buoys were
showing winds generally between 15-20kts across the Gulf and bays.
Decided to keep SCEC wording in the CWF to highlight the adverse
conditions. Winds and seas will remain moderate through the
evening and overnight. As pressure gradient increases Friday,
expect small craft thresholds to be met for winds and seas for
Gulf waters 0-60nm and for winds on the bays. Not much improvement
is expected through the end of the short term period.

Saturday through Tuesday...Moderate to strong south
to southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Saturday
as surface high pressure across Florida and low pressure across
the Mexican plateau provides a strong pressure gradient across the
lower Texas coast. Winds will remain moderate to strong across
the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Tuesday as low pressure
east of the Rockies moves into the south-central plains Sunday
into Monday. SCEC to SCA conditions will prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER (Saturday through Tuesday)...Relative humidity
values will be in the 30 to 40 percent range across the western
portions of the CWA through the weekend into early next week.
20ft winds will be strongest across the coastal sections of deep
south TX Saturday through Tuesday. With fuels expected to remain
dry across most of the area...winds and relative humidity will
approach red flag warning conditions across the central portions
of the CWA warranting fire danger statements through the period.




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