Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 232335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A weak frontal boundary near the NE/KS state line this afternoon
will become the focus for thunderstorm formation this evening.
Expect convection starting to initiate across the high plains the
past hour to spread east through the late afternoon and evening
hours. With some modest elevated instability and decent 0-6 KM
shear values present...could see a few of these storms reach
severe criteria...with large hail being the primary focus. Not
surprisingly...most of the short term guidance is hinting at some
thunderstorm development near and on the cool side of this
boundary this evening. As a result...expect to see some strong to
marginally severe storms ride this boundary similar to
HRRR/RAP/NAM...and blended this guidance to come up with shower
and thunderstorm coverage for this evening.

With the fairly progressive nature of these showers and
thunderstorms tonight...expect precipitation to come to an end
before daybreak Saturday...with cooler air filtering in across
the local area tomorrow. While there could be some clearing across
the southwestern half of the area tomorrow...clouds will likely
linger east of highway 281...with a cloudy and cool afternoon
anticipated as clouds wrap around the departing surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A fairly active and seasonably cool start to the extended periods
is anticipated as troughiness across the west...followed by a
progressive northwestelry flow...will impact the local weather
through the end of next week.

While overall...not a lot of precipitation is anticipated with
a weak disturbance Saturday night...overnight low temperatures
came down a couple of degrees and these cooler lows justified the
continued mention of some light mixed precipitation across the
region. Evenso...qpf values will not amount to do not
think this will be a large concern for the time being.

Thereafter...additional chances for precipitation are anticipated
periodically through the end of the multiple weak
disturbances make their way across the local area. While no
particular day appears too threatening...could see a few isolated
thunderstorms in spots anywhere from late Sunday night through
Tuesday morning...although at this point they do not appear that
they will approach severe limits. Thereafter...the temperatures
will fluctuate around seasonal norms through the end of next
week...with some additional small chances of precip.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

The main aviation forecast concern is in the first 6 hours with
the chance of thunderstorms, then a continued chance for IFR
ceilings to persist into the morning hours. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed and will impact both the KEAR/KGRI
terminals in the first 3 to 6 hours, with the best chance in the
first 3 hours. Have VCTS at this juncture, but will likely amend
for prevailing Thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms exit, low
clouds are expected with MVFR to IFR ceilings persisting into the
morning hours. Winds will become northerly.




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