518
FXUS63 KGID 132245
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
545 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low (15%) chance for an isolated storm early this evening
  within far northern/northwest parts of our forecast area. IF
  storms develop they could produce small hail and gusty winds.

- Warmer weather on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s.

- Higher chances for showers/storms arrive Tuesday night-
  Wednesday some of which could be strong-severe, though
  details remain uncertain.

- Cooler weather on Thursday (70s/80s) before temperatures warm
  back to the 80s/90s by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

This Afternoon Through Tonight...

Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the 80s under
sunny skies and light southerly winds. A frontal boundary is
currently located along a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth and into
southwestern Minnesota. An area of cumulus is evident on satellite
along this boundary. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible
along this boundary over the next few hours. Most CAM guidance keeps
the forecast area capped and largely storm free, though a couple of
models (WRF-NSSL & FV3) continue to show the potential for scattered
development so felt it was worth it to keep a 15% PoP in the far
northwest. If storms do develop and move into far northwestern
portions the area, they could be on the stronger side, owing to
CAPE values over 2000 J/Kg. Mid level lapse rates below 6C/Km
and shear being modest (25kts) should prevent any storm from
becoming severe. Still, gusty winds and small hail will be
possible in storms if they develop. Any storm will come to an
end by sunset due to the loss of daytime/peak heating. Lows
tonight will be in the 60s.

Monday...

Northwesterly flow aloft will become zonal on Monday, as a shortwave
trough breaks down western ridging. Monday looks to be dry across
the area. Highs on Monday will climb into the 90s, aided by
strengthening southerly flow. Winds will be breezy at times across
western portions of the area, gusting 20-25mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A surface low associated with an approaching shortwave trough will
deepen on Tuesday. Another warm day is expected on Tuesday with
highs in the 90s, and nearing the 100s across southwestern portions
of the area. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday
afternoon along a cold front stretching from northwestern Nebraska
into central South Dakota. The storms will likely form into a strong
to severe MCS over time. The biggest question for these storms is
how strong will they be when they enter/move through the forecast
area Tuesday night (20-55% PoPs). Given their time of arrival (late
evening/overnight), storms will be on the downtrend, but how quickly
storms weaken/dissipate is uncertain at this time.

Wednesday will likely be greatly impacted by how Tuesday night`s
storms move through the area. A more robust/longer lasting MCS could
push the stationary front entirely southeast of the forecast area,
resulting in a cooler, drier day. A weaker/shorter lasting MCS would
result in a stationary front setting up across portions of the area
on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 70s/low 80s
north of the front, to the upper 80s-mid 90s south of the front.
Another shortwave trough will move into the Plains on Wednesday,
aiding the development of thunderstorms along the stationary front.
These storms would have the potential to become severe, though again
details (position of front, instability/shear, outflow boundaries)
are uncertain at this time.

Thursday Onwards...

Cooler weather is expected on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Southerly flow returns to the area Friday onwards, as
highs climb back near their climatological normals (upper 80s, low
90s). Scattered, low probability chances (15-35%) for storms litter
the long range portion of the forecast due to a series of shortwave
disturbances moving through the area. The details on any of these
shortwaves is uncertain as model alignment begins to break down
on the timing and strength of these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
This is a very high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility forecast,
with in fact little cloud cover whatsoever except for perhaps a
few periods of few-to-scattered cumulus based around 7-9K ft.
AGL.

Confidence is also very high (at least 90%) that it remains
precipitation/thunderstorm-free (TAFs reflect this). The only
low probability exception is a roughly 10% chance that a spotty
shower/weak thunderstorm manages to drift in from the north
right away this evening mainly prior to 02Z, but the vast
majority of any such potential activity should focus 50+ miles
north of KGRI/KEAR.

Winds will also not be a significant issue, with sustained
speeds mainly at-or-below 11KT (and even any higher
gusts...primarily Monday afternoon...only 15-16KT). Direction
will generally prevail southerly, but will lean toward
southwesterly/southeasterly at times.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Pfannkuch