539
FXUS63 KLBF 070522
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1222 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy tonight, especially over northwestern Nebraska with westerly
wind gusts up to around 55 mph.

- Small threat for lingering showers/thunderstorms early this
evening in the far northeastern forecast area.

- Upper level low pressure will meander across the northern and
  central plains through mid week. This will lead to slightly
  cooler than normal temperatures and a threat for
  precipitation, mainly over central and northern Nebraska.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

H5 analysis this morning had an upper low over northern
Colorado/southern Wyoming. A trough extended south-southwest of this
feature into the Four Corners. Downstream of this feature, a
negative tilted ridge extended from central Wisconsin, northwest
into eastern Saskatchewan and central Manitoba. Downstream of this
feature, a decent shortwave trough was located over the Bootheel of
Missouri. The 2 PM CDT surface analysis has a low over far
southeastern Montana. A Pacific cold front extended south-southeast
of the low into the western Nebraska Panhandle and just east of the
Palmer Divide of Colorado. A warm front extended east southeast of
the low into central South Dakota and portions of north-central
Nebraska. A dryline was present from west of Valentine, south to
just east of North Platte, to east of Oakley Kansas, to the far
eastern Texas Panhandle. Skies were generally cloudy east of highway
83 with clear to partly cloudy skies west of this route.
Temperatures ranged from 61 degrees at Ainsworth to 78 degrees at
North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper level low will drift to the northeast tonight from
the Black Hills into far southwestern North Dakota. On the
southern periphery of the low, strong winds are noted around the
750mb level this evening. This area extends from northeastern
Wyoming into the southern Black Hills and northern Nebraska.
Winds at this level are in the 70 to 80 KT range this evening.
With some additional low level cold air advection noted
particularly tonight, feel a large portion of these wind
velocities could make it to the surface, particularly over
northern Sheridan, and to a lesser degree over western Cherry
County. After looking at the hi res models (RAP and HRRR for
surface wind gusts) decided to hoist a high wind warning for
Sheridan County for tonight. Feel this is the area where the
potential is greatest for 60+ MPH wind gusts particularly this
evening. Elsewhere, there is another tongue of higher mid level
winds over SW Nebraska this evening. However, low level cold air
advection is less pronounced and given the diurnal timing,
winds should stay below warning criteria further south. The
upper level low will stall along the ND/SD border tomorrow. A
weak disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery of
the low Tuesday. With surface heating and cold air aloft could
not rule out a stray shower over northern Nebraska and will
leave this in the forecast. I did take out a mention of showers
over the southern half of the forecast area where H500 temps are
warmer and lesser instability is anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper level low will meander south Wednesday into Thursday.
This will lead to an increased threat for shower development,
particularly during the late afternoon and early evening hours,
when peak diurnal instability is realized. Anticipate this
quickly ending each day by sundown with some clearing skies
expected. The latest NBM forecast has widespread likely pops
during the Wednesday and Thursday time periods and believe this
is way overdone given the synoptic setup and low overall QPF
forecast. Drier conditions will set in late in the week as the
upper level low retrogrades southwest of the forecast area. A
northern stream trough this weekend will finally pick up the
remnants of the low and force it south then east of the area.
Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for the weekend and
early next week with mainly dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

983mb sfc low pressure circulating north through wrn SD tonight will
stall across wrn ND Tuesday and begin to fill. Sporadic MVFR
ceilings in isolated SHRA are possible across nrn Nebraska
overnight. Isolated SHRA are possible across wrn and ncntl
Nebraska Tuesday with the best chance across nrn Nebraska during
the afternoon.

Aviators will continue to contend with LLWS WS020/27050KT
overnight. These winds will relax during the day Tuesday and the
risk of LLWS Tuesday evening is low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC