Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018


At 08z...Stratus extended east of Gordon through North Platte. Some
fog also indicated at Valentine (5sm), Ainsworth (1/2sm) and
O`Neill (1 3/4sm). with the surface low centered over Emporia KS,
winds across western Nebraska were mainly northwest. Across much
of the eastern Panhandle into portions of southwest Nebraska,
skies were mostly clear. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 30s
to lower 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A closed low over northwest Iowa will move into northern Illinois by
late this afternoon. Cooler air behind the departing low will
bring cooler temperatures to western Nebraska today. Highs remain
near or slightly cooler than previous forecast, from near 40 in
the northeast, to near 60 in the far southwest. Light northerly
winds this morning will turn to the east and southeast at 10 to 15
mph this afternoon. Stratus is forecast to hold across areas east
of Valentine through Broken Bow through this afternoon, while the
west to remain mostly sunny.

For tonight, southwesterly flow aloft will increase as a weak
disturbance crosses the Northern and Central Plains. Better lift
will be across the Dakotas into northern Nebraska. POPs near 30
percent near the South Dakota border after midnight, with a slight
chance as far south as highway 2. Given that the moisture will be
limited to below 800mb, and temperature profiles from 2C to -4C,
any weak lift may result in drizzle or freezing drizzle. Mainly
expecting only trace amounts of precip., with any ice
accumulations also expected to be mainly just a trace. The area of
stratus in the east will expand westward across all of western
Nebraska overnight. Lows from 33 to 36 in the eastern panhandle,
low 30s central, and upper 20s east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Precipitation chances increase once again later Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night as surface low pressure deepens across eastern
Colorado. Broad southwest flow aloft will be in place Sunday night
resulting in mid level warm air advection. This, in combination
with a decent southerly low jet nosing into the area ahead of the
surface low, should result in shower activity developing across
the panhandle later Sunday afternoon and then advancing eastward
across the area Sunday night. A change over to wet snow is expected
to occur across northwest Nebraska after midnight, with some minor
accumulations of 1/2 inch or so on grassy surfaces.

Scattered showers are possible Monday as southwest flow aloft
continues ahead of the long wave trough that will be in the process
of closing off across the desert southwest. By Tuesday the area will
begin to see the effects of the northern stream as a shortwave dives
southeast across the northern plains. This will keep things mostly
dry for us as flow aloft transitions to northwesterly. Meanwhile the
southern plains will see locally heavy rainfall as the upper low
tracks east across that area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

IFR ceilings currently exist at KVTN, KANW, KBBW and KONL. MVFR
ceilings near ovc015 at KLBF anf KTIF. Stratus extends across
much of western Nebraska, except across portions of southwest
Nebraska. Stratus should clear the KLBF terminal by 15z, with VFR
conditions until after 02Z this evening, when IFR ceilings will
set in by 06z. At KVTN, IFR ceilings are forecast to lift to MVFR
by 17z, and persist for the remainder of the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.