Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 241344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
644 AM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...24/637 AM.

There is a slight chance of light showers north of Point
Conception this weekend then breezy offshore winds early in the
week. Temperatures will warm to above normal by late in the week.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...24/310 AM.

SW flow is over Srn Ca with plenty of mid and high level clouds
embedded in it. Some low level clouds have formed in the vlys due
to upslope flow. Satellite also shows some low clouds moving up
the Orange County coast and by dawn they should be over parts of
the LA coast. A very weak cold front is just moving into MRY
County. It has some light rain with it and there is a slight chc
that it will bring a shower or two into SLO County. Lower than
normal hights and partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep max
temps 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

The front will wash out over the area tonight it will not have
that much of an effect except to bring clouds and few showers with
snow down to 5000 feet to the north slopes. These showers will
persist into Sunday morning.

Plenty of cool air will move into the area on Sunday and despite
more sunshine it will be the coolest day of the next 7.

On Sunday night and Monday Srn Ca will be between a ridge poking
into the north of the state and a trof exiting the SE portion of
the state. This will set up a little upper level north flow which
will combine with Northerly sfc flow to produce some north winds.
There will be sundowner winds and I-5 corridor winds sunday night
but there will only be local advisory level gusts.

The northerly flow will continue through the day on Monday. Skies
will be mostly sunny. Hgts will still be below normal and while
there will be warming max temps will still be 2 to 4 degrees blo

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/326 AM.

At one point the upper trof was supposed to cut off near Las Vegas
and set up NE flow over the state for a couple of days. But now
both the EC and GFS agree that this will not happen. The forecast
now calls for the trof to move off to the east and for a ridge to
build in slowly from the west.

There is decent low level offshore flow on Tuesday. When there was
upper level support in the mix it looked like a high likelihood
of advisory level winds but now it looks like it will be a low end
advisory event at best. There will be less of an offshore push on
Wednesday enough for some local canyon breezes but thats it.

The Downtown LA max temp has been blo normal for 11 of the past
14 days and will likely be blo normal for the next three days.
This cool streak will end on Tuesday as the there will be warming
Tuesday through the rest of the week. By Friday max temps will be
8 to 12 degrees above normal under mostly clear skies.



At 1105Z, at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor was there a sfc
based inversion.

Low confidence in cst/vly TAFs in LA county and good confidence
elsewhere. IFR to MVFR cigs will move in and out of the LA county
area through 18Z. There is a 40 percent chc that cigs will be
above 090 aft 18Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs will move in and out of the
terminal and likely be MVFR but there is a 20 percent chc of IFR
levels. There is a 40 percent chc that cigs will be above 090 aft
18Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an east wind component greater
than 8 kt through 16Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs will move in and out of the
terminal and will vary from IFR to low MVFR. There is a 30 percent
chc of There is a 40 percent chc that cigs will be above 090 aft


.MARINE...24/316 AM.

Small Craft Advisories (SCA) are in effect for the two southern
outer water zones through late Monday night. However, the northern
zone should remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday morning.
70% chance that a SCA will be needed after that. The same can be
said for PZZ645 across the inner waters N of Point Conception.

Inner Waters S of Point Conception...Good confidence that SCA will
be in effect for both zones. Strongest across the western
portions. The gusty NW winds will continue through Sunday night
for a good portion of those zones. Offshore winds should develop
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. 60% chance that another
SCA will be needed for the offshore Santa Ana Winds at that time.


PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).



No significant hazards expected.


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