078
FXUS66 KLOX 152039
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
139 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/113 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog continue for
coasts and most valleys through most of this week. A cooling
trend will continue through Thursday when valley highs are only
expected to be in the 80s. A slow warming trend will develop by
the weekend with highs close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/133 PM.

No changes from previous forecasts. Marine layer deepened a few
hundred feet last night and expecting it to increase to at least
3000 feet tonight, bringing low clouds and fog into the lower
coastal mountain slopes. Highs today have been running 1-3 degrees
cooler than yesterday near the coast and 5-10 degrees cooler
inland. With the deepening marine layer tonight expecting highs to
again be at least a few degrees cooler in most areas with slower
clearing than today.

A slow warming trend will begin Thursday and continue through
Friday. Marine layer depth will decrease considerably, possibly
confined to the coastal zones by Friday.

Still monitoring the potential for afternoon showers/storms across
the San Gabriel Mountains Thursday as moisture slowly works its
way west from MX and AZ. Based on the all the model guidance it
still seems like the chances for precip reaching the ground are
10% or less. While PW`s increase to around 1.2", most of that
moisture is above 15000 feet and stability parameters are not
favorable for sustained updrafts. So will keep rain chances out of
the forecast but continue to monitor the models to see if a kicker
appears and/or moisture and especially instability increase.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/138 PM.

Not a lot of weather excitement locally over the weekend and into
early next week. The slow warming trend will continue into the
weekend, generally topping out near seasonal normals in most
areas by Sunday. Then just minimal day to day changes in temps and
marine layer coverage early next week with no additional signs of
monsoon flow or any big heat waves at least through the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1721Z.

At 1615Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4400 feet with a max temperature of 23 C.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in forecasts for KPRB, KPMD
and KWJF.

For the remainder of TAF sites, moderate confidence in 18Z TAFs.
Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current
forecasts. There is 30% chance that SCT conditions develop
briefly this afternoon at KLAX, KOXR and KSBA.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30%
chance that SCT conditions develop briefly this afternoon. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...15/1128 AM.

Today through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the coastal
waters. For Friday through Sunday, winds will begin to increase
with a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox