Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 191100
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
400 AM PDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...Showers wrapping around the closed upper low that is
moving into Arizona today will continue to move east through the
day today. An upper level ridge nudges in quickly this afternoon,
and with a thermal trough deepening along the coast offshore flow
spreads east to the Cascades by Friday morning. Models and
guidance continue on track as they have over the past days with a
dramatic bump in temperatures tomorrow. highs are expected to be
near 70 to the mid 70s in the west side valleys tomorrow. The
upper level ridge transitions to a zonal flow pattern Saturday
with a weak front moving through. Models continue to show ever
lightening precip with this front and the final result may be
just a marine push with some sprinkly dinklys on the coast and
north of the Umpqua Divide to the Cascades Saturday. Models are in
agreement with an upper level trough moving through on Sunday, and
the 06Z run is now showing instability from the Mt Shasta area to
the northeast. However, the flow is northerly through the day
Saturday into Sunday morning and is not conducive to feeding moist
unstable air into the region that would bring thunderstorm
development and am leaving this out for now. Sven


&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAF CYCLE...expect VFR to prevail and local IFR
to develop in the west side valleys and perhaps along the coast
toward morning. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR by late
Thursday morning with gusty northwest winds developing east of the
Cascades. Breezy north winds are expected and could be as high as 15-
20 knot in the Klamath Basin and LMT. -FB

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday 19 April 2018...High pressure
will build in throughout the day. North winds and steep seas will
create hazardous conditions for small craft south of Port Orford
this afternoon. Winds and seas should subside as a weak front
approaches Friday, then dissipates near the coast late Friday night.
A thermal trough will develop this weekend. This will bring strong
north winds, likely gale force, to areas south of Cape Blanco, while
areas farther north will have winds and seas hazardous to small
craft.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ356-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN



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