551
FXUS66 KPDT 152335
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
435 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.UPDATED AVIATION...00Z...VFR conditions will persist across all
TAF sites except for RDM/BDN due to smoke from the Cram Fire. RDM
VIS has dropped to near 2SM and is expected to lift to 4SM later
in the afternoon while BDN is at 4SM and will vary between 4SM and
6SM through the period. All TAF site will see breezy to windy
conditions through 08-09Z with winds between 11-15 and gusts to 25
kts. Bennese/90

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025/

SHORT TERM...today through Friday morning...

Satellite shows plumes of smoke from the Cram fire flowing into
Deschutes county and, to a lesser extent, Crook county. Winds
currently from the NE will shift more to the NNE/N in the later
afternoon hours, throwing some chances of smoke for the
Redmond/Bend area for the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening hours.

Temperatures are 5-15 degrees cooler than yesterday and will re-
enter a warming trend through the short term as a shortwave exits
the region. Mid-level winds in the synoptic pattern will pave for
some breezy conditions through the region. Combined with low RHs
and windy conditions, many parts of the region will see some
region of overlap (20-40% chance). Several fire weather zones in
Central OR will see decent coverage of overlap in Thursday. Given
that, we`ve issued Fire Weather Watches for ORZ696-698-703
Thursday afternoon into the evening hours.

LONG TERM...Friday morning through Tuesday...Fire weather
critical conditions continue through Friday as dry/windy
conditions. A little too far out to issue watches, but more than
likely will issue some watches for Friday in the next 12-24 hours.
SPC notes a 40% hatch over Central OR into much of the Basin for
Friday for critical fire conditions. A trough pattern re-appears
going into the weekend as a cold front is expected to enter the
region sometime Saturday, bringing back cooler temperatures,
wetter conditions, and less elevated fire conditions overall. Min
RH`s will recover as the cold front pattern starts, with values
between 20-30% for most of the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  57  91  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  60  91  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  57  93  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  61  92  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  57  93  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  58  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  48  91  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  55  88  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  51  91  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  64  95  66  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for ORZ696-698-703.

WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...90