Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FGUS71 KPHI 151951

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
351 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 6

This is the sixth in a series of annual Flood Potential Statements
intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding
(not flash flooding) over the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh,
Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins. These statements
will provide information on flood threat conditions such as recent
precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water equivalent,
river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation and others.

This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any
future river flooding.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor
which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy
rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even
when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low.

This outlook is valid between March 15 to 29, 2018.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is at or above normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York


RECENT PRECIPITATION - Above normal. Between 4.5 and 7.0 inches
of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across the
entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - At or above normal. Snow water equivalent (SWE) is
between 1.00 and 2.00 inches across northern New Jersey and the
Poconos. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can
be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest
tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - Below normal. No ice exists anywhere in the HSA.

STREAMFLOW - Normal. Real time water data is available from the
United States Geological Survey by visiting http://water.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Normal to above normal. Soil moisture monitoring
charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s
Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region are variable, ranging from below
normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are running below normal to above normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - Low pressure remains over the
Canadian Maritimes through Saturday, then weakens as it moves
eastward. Meanwhile, a cold front moves through the region tonight
followed by high pressure slowly building toward our area late
Friday. A weak area of low pressure will quickly slide to our
south Saturday, then high pressure arrives for Sunday. Low
pressure in the Central Plains later Sunday and Monday tracks
eastward, and should result in another coastal storm for Tuesday
into Wednesday before moving to off the New England coast
Thursday. The overall 8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into
consideration, the overall flood potential is at or above normal.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:



OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...At or above normal
SNOW COVER...At or above normal
RIVER ICE...Below normal
SOIL MOISTURE...Normal to above normal
GROUND WATER...Variable, below normal to above normal
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...Below normal to above normal



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