501
AWUS01 KWNH 140409
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0678
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1208 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL...Western KY...Far
Southwest IND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140410Z - 140830Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, highly efficient cells pose localized
totals of 2-3" in 1-2 hrs.  Isolated potential for some repeating
may result in isolated higher amount.  Small areal flash flooding
may be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...As the core of the broader long-wave trough shifts
through the Middle Ohio River Valley, the remaining narrower
positive tilt trough extends upstream through the Ozark Plateau
into Texas.  A stronger shortwave is approaching with a surge of
deeper layer moisture and is forcing newer scattered convection
along the northern nose of the surge across NE AR attm.  A weaker,
shallower shortave or shear axis can be seen in the 925-850mb
layer across S IL with a pool of enhanced deep layer moisture
between 2-2.25" of total PWats and weakly capped MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg.  Speed convergence and weak WAA has sprouted a few
shallow thunderstorms with  13-14Kft of warm cloud to support
efficient collision and coalesence processes for efficient
tropical showers with 2-3"/hr rates.  Deep layer steering is a tad
weak in the wake of the exiting stronger wave across OH, and is
fairly parallel to the warm conveyor belt that is along SE MO into
the Lower Ohio River valley.  This may allow for a random
intersection for repeating that may result in a localized 3"+
maximum over a 2-3 hour period (as noted in N Cape Girardeau
county), but the more likely concern is scattered to widely
scatterd 2-3" in 30-60 minutes totals across S IL into SE IND.

Expanding convective activity across NE AR, is likely to expand
northeastward along the warm conveyor belt into SE MO and W KY,
with similar lower end/focused FF concerns; but there is enough
organization (given 20kts of effective bulk shear) for an isolated
or widely scattered incident or two of localized flash flooding
through 08z within the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38379008 38378869 38348756 38178705 37758712
            36828825 36108924 35529012 35459061 35729104
            36209103 36709081 37099056 37459068 37589095
            38139079