733
AWUS01 KWNH 150833
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-151300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0695
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia...North-central/Northeast
North Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150835Z - 151300Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of 2"/hr rates and some weak upstream
development pose localized 3"+ add`l totals likely maintain
ongoing flash flooding conditions across SE VA.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows lingering banding of
tropical shower activity across southeast VA with a few additional
storms developing upstream within the deep moisture/warm conveyor
axis in NC.   Synoptic environment remains favorable for continued
weak/widely scattered development that may track through heavily
flooded areas near Petersburg and points eastward toward Hampton
Roads and Norfolk.   WV suite shows trailing axis of main
shortwave energy and jet streak entrance region across the
Delmarva allowing for further elongation/stretching of the warm
conveyor belt along and through central NC, southeast VA and
offshore of the Delmarva.  Total PWats are still well above normal
at 2.25" and winds are still about 10-15kts across SE VA providing
some deeper layer convergence to maintain some cells.

In the wake, WV suite and RAP analysis shows, the northeast corner
of the deep layer ridge keeps pushing northeast into the area and
reducing mid to upper-level flow leaving a col in steering across
SE VA...so weak southeastward propagation is driven by cold pool
generation.   Any further development is likely along the upstream
edge where there remains a pool of 1000 J/kg from the ongoing
complex toward the southwest so new development along the near
upstream flank of the complex remains possible and capable of
2"/hr rates.  As such, given slow motions, proximity to already
flooded areas and metro areas of southeast VA, flash flooding
remains likely to continue and perhaps expand a bit further south
and east for the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37557689 37527639 37357615 36817600 36547644
            36177727 35807826 35807884 36057905 36427872
            36827814 37147762