832
FNUS74 KEPZ 181051
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
451 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 MDT on May 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Today`s min RH`s will be in the low teens and our winds will be
well below critical levels. But after today, fire weather concerns
begin to increase. We will be drier and see more wind on Sunday,
with elevated fire weather concerns. We will be windier on Monday
and Tuesday with critical fire weather conditions possible. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for Monday. For the middle and end of
next week, we will see a little lower winds, but very low min
RH`s will continue. Overnight RH`s recoveries will be poor only
getting to around 30%.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent) then becoming mostly sunny
                    (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west
                    6 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......13400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (74600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (130300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      2      2      58     58     35
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............50     59     69     76     80     82
RH..............41     32     21     14     13     13
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 7   W 6    SW 6   SW 6   W 8
20 ft wind gust.16     16     15     16     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....8300   8300   13400  13400  13000  13000
Transport wind..NW 14  NW 14  W 7    W 7    W 9    W 9
Haines index....4      5      5      5      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..75     75     86     86     130    130
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (126400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (8000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........9      9      8      7      7      10
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............78     69     64     60     57     55
RH..............13     17     21     23     27     29
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    W 7    W 7    W 7    W 7
20 ft wind gust.17     17     15     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....11500  11500  600    600    600    600
Transport wind..W 14   W 14   W 17   W 17   W 18   W 18
Haines index....6      5      5      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..126    126    8      8      8      8
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 11 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph shifting to the southwest 17 to 18 mph with
                    gusts to around 33 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 29 mph increasing to around 35 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (148500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (253400 knot-ft) in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         2         3         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............54        66        76        81
RH..............31        22        13        10
20 FT wind......W 7G17    W 11G25   SW 17G32  SW 18G33
Mix hgt (ft)....6500      6500      9400      9300
Transport wind..W 20      W 20      SW 29     W 35
Haines index....4         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..149       149       253       268
Ventrate Cat....VYGD      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. West
winds around 18 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West
winds around 17 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s. West
winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Brian anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414517.1/EPZ
.DELDT 05/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian.d.anderson@usda.gov