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Spot Forecast for Blue front...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
321 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MST on November 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An approaching upper level storm system will bring breezy winds
and a good chance for snow showers to the area tonight. Snowfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Monday afternoon will be
possible. We will be dry and cool on Tuesday before another storm
system brings a chance for rain and snow on Thursday. Min RH`s on
Monday will be very high at 70 to 90%, but a little drier for
Wednesday and Thursday with min RH`s of 30 to 50%.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the evening, then snow showers
                    likely late in the evening. Chance of snow
                    showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 23.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 16 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........61        68        77        89
Weather cov.....CHANCE    LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50        60        40        40
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............31        30        30        29
RH..............85        88        92        88
20 FT wind......SW 18G32  SW 16G30  SW 16G31  SW 18G32
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    BLW100    BLW100    BLW100
Transport wind..SW 20     SW 20     SW 20     SW 24
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8         8         0         0
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Snow showers
                    likely in the morning and early afternoon, then
                    slight chance of snow showers late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 27.
Min humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 14 to 17 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 12 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 19 to 22 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........87  87  87  81  81  81  87  87  87  83  83  83
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  70  70  70  70  70  70  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............26  25  24  26  24  24  25  24  24  24  23  23
RH..............92  92  92  88  100 96  100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..17  17  17  14  14  14  13  13  13  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.32  32  32  26  26  26  24  24  24  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.22  22  22  22  19  19  19  19  15  15  15  15
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 22.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 8 mph shifting to the west 5
                    to 7 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 10 mph shifting to the west around
                    11 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........43  43  43  26  26  26  14  14  14  13  13  13
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............23  23  22  22  22  22  22  23  23  23  23  23
RH..............100 96  92  88  88  88  88  81  81  81  77  77
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   5   5   5   5   5   5   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.18  18  18  12  12  12  12  12  12  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  8   8   8   8   11  11  11  11
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 33.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   6   6   3   3   3   4   4   4   7   7   7
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............23  24  25  27  29  30  31  32  32  31  30  29
RH..............77  74  71  65  58  55  53  51  51  53  55  55
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  20  20  20  20  20  20  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  18  18  18  18  14  14  14  14
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.
Southwest winds around 12 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Snow showers likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper
20s. Southeast winds around 14 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the mid 20s. South winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Roy Hough
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425637.0/EPZ
.DELDT 11/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL errick.kimbrell@usda.gov,rhoughtrees@gmail.com