Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
1500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HALIFAX NS     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

YARMOUTH NS    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MONCTON NB     34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST JOHN NB     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

EASTPORT ME    34  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BAR HARBOR ME  34 10   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

AUGUSTA ME     34 28  11(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

PORTLAND ME    34 54   7(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)

CONCORD NH     34 88   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
CONCORD NH     50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PORTSMOUTH NH  34 71   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)

WORCESTER MA   34 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
WORCESTER MA   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
SPRINGFIELD MA 50 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

BOSTON MA      34 73   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)

HYANNIS MA     34 46   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

NANTUCKET MA   34 36   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

PROVIDENCE RI  34 74   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BRIDGEPORT CT  50 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

NEW HAVEN CT   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW HAVEN CT   50  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

HARTFORD CT    34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
HARTFORD CT    50  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NEW LONDON CT  34 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)

ALBANY NY      34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
ALBANY NY      50 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ALBANY NY      64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

POUGHKEEPSIE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
POUGHKEEPSIE   50 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
POUGHKEEPSIE   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MONTAUK POINT  34 79   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)

ISLIP NY       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLIP NY       50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 26   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)

NEWARK NJ      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEWARK NJ      50 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)

TRENTON NJ     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TRENTON NJ     50 83   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
TRENTON NJ     64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

NWS EARLE NJ   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NWS EARLE NJ   50 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

ALLENTOWN PA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ALLENTOWN PA   50 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PHILADELPHIA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PHILADELPHIA   50 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
PHILADELPHIA   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ATLANTIC CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY  50 52   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)

BALTIMORE MD   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

DOVER DE       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DOVER DE       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WASHINGTON DC  34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50 80   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)

OCEAN CITY MD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PAX RIVER NAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PAX RIVER NAS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WALLOPS CDA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WALLOPS CDA    50 51   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)

RICHMOND VA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NORFOLK NAS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

OCEANA NAS VA  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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