Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 282106
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
506 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to build east into the eastern
Great Lakes region this afternoon and linger across the area through
Saturday morning, supporting a couple of days of cool, dry weather.
Low pressure will then move across the southern Great Lakes late
Saturday through early Sunday, supporting a chance of some rain and
wet snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery late this afternoon depict clouds skies
prevailing across the eastern portions of the area due to low
pressure impacting New England. Meanwhile to the west, diurnal
cumulus across the areas inland from the lake shadows of Western New
York and the northern Genesee Valley are beginning to thin out in
coverage. Outside of the cloud cover, high pressure centered over
northern portions of the Ontario Canadian province is spanning
across the central and eastern Great Lakes, supporting quiet weather
to prevail. With the sun setting, temperatures will begin to fall
from their daytime peaks in the 40s and into the 30s this evening.

Tonight, cloud cover will persist across the eastern Lake Ontario
region due to the aforementioned low impacting New England. Western
New York however will see some of the cloud cover diminish
overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 20s to the lower
30s across the vast majority of the area, the one exception will be
a few mid 20s for the typical cooler spots in the Southern Tier.

Dry weather will prevail Friday and Friday night due to the entrance
of a mid-level ridge pushing east across the eastern Great Lakes.
Temperatures will be quite similar to today with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s across the higher terrain and low to mid 40s
elsewhere, along with lows ranging in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Additionally, should note that Friday will feature a breezy west to
northwest wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showery conditions for the middle portion of the weekend/short term
forecast period. A weakening shortwave trough and sfc low will track
across the region Saturday afternoon causing showers to move into
the area, mainly south of Lake Ontario. As the batch of showers
tracks into the area, weakening of the sfc low and trough with
eastward progression will start to result in decreasing density of
the shower coverage over the region. Whats left with this batch of
showers will track southeast away from the forecast area later
Saturday evening. A second shortwave trough will track west to east
just north of Lake Ontario Saturday night. Showers will increase
some from the northwest to the southeast, especially for the north
country where the trough will be closest to. Showers over the
eastern portions of the forecast area should be minimal. This will
be in part due to moisture with this next shortwave will be on the
lower side with PWats generally around a third of an inch and the
trough will be in more of a weakening stage during this time.
Rainfall amounts should range from a few hundredths of an inch near
the south shore of Lake Ontario to around a tenth of an inch near
the NY/PA border. Temperatures should be just cool enough for rain
showers to mix with or change to snow for Saturday night, mainly
across the higher terrain.

Temperatures for the period should be near to a few degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday an elongated and increasingly positively-tilted upper
level trough will extend from the Rockies across the northern Great
Plains...with lee-side surface cyclogenesis supporting the continued
development of a broad surface low over the central and southern
Plains states. Northeast of this low...a tight low-level baroclinic
zone will extend eastward across the Ohio Valley...with one or more
weak disturbances rippling east along this feature and possibly
bringing the chance of a few light showers to western New York. With
continued poor model agreement in the positioning of the frontal
zone and consequently the track of any disturbances riding eastward
along it...have elected to keep PoPs for Monday confined to the low
chance range for now. Otherwise Monday looks to offer a milder than
normal start to the month of April...with highs mostly ranging
through the 50s.

After that the above mentioned upper trough will get sheared
apart...with the bulk of its energy ejecting northeastward across
the Plains states into the Great Lakes and Northeast...where this
looks to engage in a complex interaction with northern stream energy
dropping southeastward from Canada during the middle and latter
portions of the week. The corresponding surface low will continue to
develop and track northeastward toward our area Monday night and
Tuesday...then will pass somewhere across our region between Tuesday
night and Wednesday...before redeveloping off the New England
coastline Thursday. This would result in a likelihood of fairly
widespread precipitation developing across our area between later
Monday night and Tuesday...then lingering through Wednesday before
gradually tapering off thereafter.

As has been the case so far with this system...the various guidance
packages continue to exhibit differences in how the two supporting
streams of energy may interact...which then leads to differences in
the overall strength and track of the low and consequently what
precipitation types we might ultimately expect and when. A current
model consensus suggests that temps should remain warm enough to
support primarily rain through at least the first part of Tuesday
night...with a little snow then possibly mixing in across the higher
terrain later on in the night. More rain and possible higher
elevation wet snow then looks to follow for Wednesday...before
colder air wrapping in behind the system potentially brings about a
more general accumulating wet snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Meanwhile temperatures should gradually cool through the
period...with slightly above average highs on Tuesday giving way to
somewhat below average readings for both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Despite overcast skies across the eastern Lake Ontario region this
afternoon, and a few diurnal cumulus across western New York, all
TAF sites have improved to VFR. Heading into this evening, high
pressure will build into the region supporting a gradual clearing
across Western New York. However, VFR clouds will persist east of
Lake Ontario due to low pressure impacting New England.

High pressure will then persist Friday and Friday night supporting
VFR conditions to prevail.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain and wet snow.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of rain and snow showers,
improving to VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of rain.
Tuesday...MVFR with the likelihood of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
A stiff southwest breeze across the region this evening will slowly
shift northwesterly overnight. This will maintain a chop across the
waters on both lakes, though winds and waves are expected to remain
below SCA criteria through at least tonight.

A ridge of high pressure will crest over the Great Lakes Friday into
Saturday as low pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes and
deepens. This will cause the pressure gradient across the eastern
Great Lakes to increase as winds back to the WSW, resulting in SCA
conditions across the nearshore waters of both lakes into Friday
night. Wind speeds and wave heights will likely be greatest across
central and eastern Lake Ontario. Have held off on issuing any
headlines for Lake Erie with this update as conditions on the waters
will be more marginal and likely not approach SCA criteria until the
afternoon hours Friday.

Winds and waves will subside on both lakes late Friday night and
through the day Saturday as the surface high moves directly overhead.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ/PP
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...PP


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