603
FXUS61 KCAR 140537
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
137 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east overnight. A storm system approaches
from the west overnight and Tuesday, crosses the region
Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday. High
pressure builds in Friday. A front approaches on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0130 am update: The general trend for the rest of tonight into
Tuesday night was for lower PoPs and QPF with the approaching
frontal system. This also led to less cloud cover towards the
coast on Tuesday and higher temperatures for Bangor and interior
Downeast where mid 60s are expected. While Downeast will
probably not see any rainfall on Tuesday, areas in northern
Aroostook County may measure a tenth or two of an inch of
rainfall on Tuesday.

Previous discussion:
Diurnal clouds dissipate early this evening only to be followed by
increasing clouds later tonight in advance of an approaching short
wave and warm front. Brief ridging aloft the first half of the night
results in a dry evening. The increasing cloud cover tonight
and southerly flow result in mild overnight lows, which will be
generally in the mid to upper 40s. A few showers tracking
through Quebec could begin to move into the North Maine Woods
prior to midnight, but any showers tonight should be spotty at
best, with any rainfall a few hundreths of an inch or so. Patchy
fog is possible after midnight toward the coast and downeast
Maine. Warm front continues to move northeast toward the region
early Tuesday, lifting northeast through Tuesday afternoon. This
keeps mainly cloudy skies across the region through Tuesday
afternoon with light rain expected across northern areas, and
the chance for showers for Bangor and Downeast areas. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to be within a few degrees of 60, but
cooler along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday evening will feature CWA getting the squeeze play
between H5 ridge axis along the eastern seaboard and troffing
from upr low over nrn Quebec. Frontal boundary will be draped
from Quebec down thru the northeast U.S. with warm front into
wrn CWA. Rain will be occurring along front close to the
international border but forcing will become more diffuse with
time. boundary boundary Overall expect chc to likely pops to the
north of Bangor where boundary looks to set up.

Chances for showers continue Wednesday through Thursday, dependent
on lingering boundaries and subtle s/wv moving through in the flow.
Temps wl be above normal Wednesday and Thursday in the m/u 60s,
though cooler along the shore Wednesday in onshore flow. Patchy to
areas of fog will also be possible overnight Tuesday night and
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface low will be scooting off of the mid-Atlantic Thursday
night with showers well south of our area. Question is lingering
boundary that appears to be in the vicinity helping to fire off
precip as approaching upr trof flings waves twd the area. Have
dropped pops slightly Thursday night before increasing them
again Friday afternoon as diurnal heating will combine with
subtle waves moving thru in the flow to continue the chc for
showers.

Chances for showers continue thru the weekend as longwave trof
crosses the northeast. With the trof taking on a negative tilt it
will take it/s sweet time moving through with showers continuing
through the day on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through daybreak Tuesday
morning at the Aroostook terminals with conditions decreasing
to MVFR after 12Z Tuesday in lowering ceilings and developing
rain.

At KBGR/KBHB, high confidence in VFR through 06Z Tuesday.
Moderate confidence that MVFR develops after 09Z in developing
low clouds/patchy fog, with IFR possible 12-15Z. Moderate
confidence that conditions improve to MVFR by early afternoon,
and then to VFR for a time late in the day.

S wind 5 to 15 kt through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. SSE 5-
10kts Tue night/Wed becoming ENE 5-10kts late Wed night.

Thursday-Thursday night...Mainly VFR but ocnl MVFR in showers and
fog. E 5-10kts.

Friday...Mainly VFR, possible MVFR over northern Aroostook in the
afternoon in showers. SE 5-15kts.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. SE 5-15kts with
gusts 20-25kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.
Patchy fog late tonight through Tuesday morning may reduce
visibility to 1 to 3 NM at times.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas mainly below SCA levels  through
Thursday afternoon when seas increase to near 5ft over the outer
waters. Seas remain elevated through the day on Friday before
diminishing. Visibilities will be reduced in fog at times
through the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/TWD/MCW
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...CB/TWD/MCW/Buster
Marine...CB/TWD/MCW/Buster