137
FXUS63 KDDC 191837
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
137 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intense squall line with wind gusts of 60-100 mph potential is
  on track for this afternoon and evening.

- Residual moisture along with another shortwave could lead to
  a few stronger storms along the I-70 corridor Monday evening.

- Cooler temperatures mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

An 80-90 kt subtropical jet was located over the southern
Rockies, with the exit region over the southern high plains.
Ahead of this feature lee troughing has allowed for a robust
moisture return into central and southwest Kansas. Strong
instability has develop with surface based CAPE from 3000 to
4000 j/kg. The dry line was sharp in the Texas Panhandle but
less defined farther north. The dryline is surging eastward
through the panhandle but bends back to the northwest into
Colorado. Given a weak capping inversion along with elevated
heating and jet dynamics, t-storms will develop west of the
Kansas state line by 2 to 3 pm and then move into Kansas. Bulk
shear values support supercells initially in far southwest
Kansas. However, 0-1 km SRH values were only about 50 m2/s2
given the absence of a warm front in southwest Kansas that would
result in backed winds and higher low level SRH. Very large
hail is likely with the initial supercells but it is uncertain
how long the cells with remain discrete. Given the strong
instability and deep veering wind profile, very large to giant
hail is possible through 5 pm. As the storms develop cold pools,
there should be a transition to outflow domination, with
damaging winds of 70-80+ mph and small hail over a large area.
These storms will be oriented north to south and sweeping
eastward across southwest and into central Kansas during the
evening.

Farther north, storm initiation may occur early this afternoon
along I-70. Low level shear is stronger in this area so the
tornado threat could be higher there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

17Z obs and upper air analysis shows widespread low 60 dewpoints
along and ahead of the dryline which is located in the far
western Oklahoma panhandle. A cu field is starting to show up on
satellite near Clayton, NM which will be monitored over the next
couple of hours for storm initiation. CAMs have been consistent
with storms forming and intensifying just west of the CO-KS
border around 2 pm and quickly expanding and growing linear as
they move eastward. HRRR wind gusts have been showing 60-80 kt
wind potential at 10m starting near the K-25 corridor and
growing eastward through the late afternoon and evening for the
rest of southwest Kansas. Storm warnings will most likely
reflect this with WEA activation for 80+ mph destructive wind
threat. Another threat that will be monitored as the squall line
matures east of highway 83 is QLCS tornadoes. 0-3 km bulk shear
values are already SW at 35 kts east of highway 281 and are
expected to increase with the intensification of the low level
jet after 00Z. QLCS tornadoes will be very hard to have lead
time on warnings as they are usually quick spin ups and along
with the already destructive straight line wind threat
regardless if the winds are rotating or straight they will be
over 80 mph. The squall line should be out of DDC CWA by 03Z.

Lower confidence of a rogue supercell this evening is still in
play mainly in NW Oklahoma around Woodward however this could be
as far north as Coldwater-Medicine Lodge. If this happens with
the low level jet, the moisture, and instability...this
particular feature could have giant hail and supercell tornado
potential.

Monday most of the day will be the atmosphere recharging as we
should have a weak frontal boundary and southeast winds bringing
in the return of some moisture. By the late afternoon and
evening a shortwave trough is forecast to develop in northwest
to north central Kansas and we could see another round of some
strong to severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

With a busy short term, little time was spent on the long term,
and NBM was accepted. Models remain consistent ejecting a
significant piece of the Rockies trough into the northern plains
Tuesday. The associated cold front will swing through SW KS
Tuesday, with noticeably cooler, drier, and much more stable air
arriving Tuesday through Wednesday on elevated north winds.
With moisture and instability being pushed away, this evolution
will end any chance of rain/storms Tuesday through Wednesday.
NBM remains consistent with its previous runs and 00z MEX with
Wednesday being the coolest day, with sunrise temperatures in
the 40s, and pleasant afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Afternoon temperatures will warm quickly back through the 80s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Main weather event of interest will be an intense squall line
forecast to develop in eastern Colorado early this afternoon
and race across southwest Kansas. TEMPOs are included in the
TAF and we are expecting the line of storms to be around GCK and
LBL in the 22Z-00Z time frame, DDC and HYS in the 23-01Z time
frame. Downburst winds of 60+ kts are possible in this line of
storms (with some models showing as high as 75+kt gusts) as they
move over the airport and take off and landing is not advised
when the line is moving through. The line should be out of
southwest Kansas by 03Z. Low clouds are forecast to develop for
DDC and HYS between 10-14Z where we could see cloud ceilings
drop to IFR flight category.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro