142
ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas
into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early
Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from
the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is
expected to move gradually eastward, ended the period extended from
the Mid MS Valley through east TX and into the northwest Gulf of
Mexico.

Primary surface low associated with this system will remain largely
beneath the upper-level cyclone, moving from central KS early Monday
morning eastward across MO and ending the period near the southern
MO/IL border. A second, triple point low will likely be over the
south-central OK/north-central TX border vicinity early Monday
before moving eastward through southern AR throughout the day. Cold
front extended southward from this triple point low will move
gradually eastward through central and east TX during the day, and
through LA overnight. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead
of this front from central TX and the TX Hill Country eastward into
the Arklatex and Lower MS Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley and Southeast...
A very moist airmass is expected to be in place within the warm
sector covering much of central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley.
Western bound of the warm sector will be the eastward-progressing
cold front, which is expected to extend from north-central TX
through Edwards Plateau on Monday morning. The northern and eastern
bounds of the warm sector will be a warm front arcing southeastward
from north-central TX through northern LA and southern MS. The cold
front will make gradual eastward progress while the warm front lifts
northward/northeastward. Northward progression of the eastern
portion of the warm front over southern MS may be stunted throughout
much persistent warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms across
central MS and AL.

Given the ample low-level moisture (i.e. widespread low 70s
dewpoints), the airmass is expected to destabilize quickly and there
is some chance for thunderstorms could develop during the morning.
When and where the first warm-sector storms of the day develop will
have a large influence on the rest of the day, particularly if these
early storms produce strong outflow. If initial development is
widely spaced, multiple convective lines are possible. Closely
spaced development would favor cold pool amalgamation and one
convective line. In either case, large to very large hail will be
the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more
damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak and
veered low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only
exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from
northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from
Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon.

Farther east from southern AL into southern GA and the FL Panhandle,
gradual airmass destabilization may lead to a trend towards a more
surface-based storm character near the warm front during the
afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two is
possible in this area if this scenario is realized.

...Northern IL into Southern Lower MI...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward-progressing
cold front during the late afternoon. Weak vertical shear is
expected to keep updraft organization limited, keeping the overall
severe potential low.

..Mosier.. 05/12/2024

$$