806
AXPZ20 KNHC 110230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N100W to 06.5N110W.
The ITCZ continues from 06.5N110W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N
between 86W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail west of the Baja
California peninsula and southward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are over the southern Gulf of
California, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Gulf.
Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range
west of the Baja California peninsula, reaching 8 ft SW of the
coast of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere over the open water off
Mexico, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Over the Gulf of
California, seas of 3 ft or less prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will
prevail off the Baja California waters through early next week,
with small areas of fresh winds developing along the coast during
the late afternoon and evening hours through Sat. Northwest
swell will maintain seas to 8 ft through early Sat before
gradually subsiding to 6 ft or less through early next week.
Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected
elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico through the
middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough with
light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, with
seas of 4-5 ft elsewhere.

Santa Maria and Fuego Volcanoes in Guatemala have been emitting
narrow streams of ash, which has traveled west and southwestward
to near the Pacific coast of southwestern Guatemala. This ash
may move into the nearshore coastal waters across this area this
evening and continue to disperse.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the
monsoon trough are expected through early next week. Southerly
swell moving through the regional waters will build seas to 6 to
7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds will prevail with moderate seas of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1028 mb near 45N136W
southward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. Seas over this area are in the
6-8 ft range in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are
elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, with seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and SE swell.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are
expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W
of 120W through Sun, before seas subside slightly through early
next week.

$$
AL