254
AXPZ20 KNHC 200843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10.5N74W to 09N92W to
12.5N103W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to beyond
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
04.5N to 09N E of 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 10N and W of 119W to beyond
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific extends a broad ridge
south and southeastward to near 16N110W. This ridge is the main
feature controlling the weather pattern across the offshore
waters of Baja California, and is supporting moderate to fresh NW
to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds
between Cabo San Lazaro and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in Nw swell across the Baja Norte waters, and 5 to 7
ft mixed NW and SW swell across the waters south of Cabo San
Lazaro, except to 8 ft well offshore of Cabo San Lucas along
113W, as recently measured by satellite altimeter. Elsewhere,
including the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail,
with 3 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less
elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder
of the Mexican offshore waters. Smoke from regional agricultural
fires has spread across the offshore waters from the southern
Gulf of California to Central America, producing hazy skies.
Recent satellite analyses indicates that moderate smoke
concentrations are across the waters from Michoacan to Guerrero,
and across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where visibilities are likely
reduced to 5 nm.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California throughout the
week. The pressure gradient between this and lower pressures over
Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds
W of the Baja California peninsula. Winds will pulse to strong
speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon night. New NW swell will enter
the outer forecast waters of Baja California Norte today and
dominate Baja waters through Wed. Seas are expected to build 8
to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia late today through Wed, with seas
subsiding below 8 ft on Thu. Light to moderate concentrations of
smoke, due to agricultural fires, is expected to maintain hazy
skies and may reduce visibility over portions of southern
Mexico through Tue. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected
during the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South to southwest monsoonal winds are moderate off the coast
of Ecuador and to the Galapagos Islands, and re feeding in to
scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring across the near and
offshore waters of Costa Rica along 87W, eastward into the coast
of Colombia and the Gulf of Panama. Long period SW swell is
producing seas to 9 ft south of the Galapagos Islands, and 5 to
7 ft elsewhere S of 05N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
across the Central America offshore waters, except for moderate
offshore gap winds across the Papagayo region. Moderate seas in
the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell are noted across the Central
America offshore waters. Smoke from agricultural fires across
the region has spread from Mexico southeastward to as far as
northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 09N-10N
will help to focus scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the Central America waters south of 09N through Wed, as it
interacts with a middle level trough across the SW Caribbean.
Winds will remain moderate to briefly fresh to the south of the
monsoon trough and moderate or weaker north of the trough through
Wed. New southwesterly swell is reaching the waters of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands this morning, and will support seas of
6 to 8 ft tonight there through Tue night, while seas build to 5
to 7 ft elsewhere this afternoon through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb, located N of the forecast
area near 41N141W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N
and W of 108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to
E trade winds from 09N to 22N and W of 125W. Seas are in the 8
to 10 ft range within these winds. N of 20N, gentle to moderate
N to NE winds prevail with seas of 5 to 8 ft in NE swell.
Elsewhere south through southeast of the ridge to 08N, gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging N and SW swell
prevail W of 110W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed SW and SE swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through
the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of
the ridge, and mainly W of 130W. New cross equatorial SW swell
has entered the regional waters tonight and will combine with
northerly swell to dominate area waters through Wed before
subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft across the trade wind zone will
begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
Stripling