Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241108
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
408 AM MST Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of rain and snow, gusty winds, and colder
temperatures are in store for today across northern Arizona.
Showers are expected to linger through Tuesday, with drier and
warmer weather then returning to close out the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...An area of intense rain and snow showers is
moving eastward across northern Arizona early this morning. These
showers are expected to continue to move west to east as a cold
front moves across the region. For areas west of I-17/US-89 this
most intense precipitation should come to and end by around 5 AM
MST. For areas to the east, the most intense period will be from 1
AM MST to 8 AM MST. Liquid preciptation amounts with the front
look to be around 0.30-0.60 inches, with up to 1.00 inches in the
heaviest precipitation. In the typical rain-shadowed areas, around
a tenth of a inch is expected. For areas above, 6000-6500 much of
the precipitation is expected to fall as snow, with 2 to 4 inches
expected by the morning. Areas above 7000-7500 feet will see the
most accumulation, with around a foot of snow expected.

After the frontal passage, more scattered coverage of showers are
expected during the afternoon. With a cold air mass in place, a few
stronger storms will be possible in the afternoon, leading to brief
periods of heavy snow or rain. Snow levels look to be at around 5500
feet, however any heavier precipitation would potentially lower them
some. Depending on how much heating occurs during the day, surface
temperatures maybe also be a few degrees too warm below 6500-7000
feet for snow to accumulate. However, as previously mentioned, any
heavier snow will be able to overcome the warmer temperatures and
lead to some brief accumulations. Showers are expected to linger
through the evening and should come to an end by around midnight.
Another 2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible with these
showers.

Outside of the precipitation, gusty winds look to redevelop again
for Sunday, especially over eastern Arizona. A Wind Advisory has
been issued for the LIttle Colorado River Valley for this afternoon,
where peak gusts of 40-50 mph are expected. Elsewhere, gusts should
remain sub-advisory criteria, around 30-40 mph.

Monday and Tuesday...Temperatures begin to warm as the initial
shortwave moves out of the southwest. However, the longwave trough
axis remains over Arizona, keeping daily chances for rain and snow
showers in the forecast through Tuesday. Snow accumulations overall
each day should be minor, especially with warmer surface
temperatures keeping the best chances for accumulating snow above
7000 feet or so.

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure builds into Arizona by
the middle of next week as the trough moves into the central United
States. Much warmer and drier conditions look to prevail through
much of the remainder of the week. However, guidance does point to
more unsettled weather potentially returning late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 24/12Z through Monday 25/12Z...A frontal
precipitation band along a KSOW-KINW-KOV7 line at 12Z will move
eastward into New Mexico by 15Z-16Z. Conditions along the frontal
band will produce MVFR/IFR due to CIGS/SHSN/SHRA/-TSRA. Outside of
the frontal band, pockets of mainly MVFR CIGS with spotty showers
through 18Z. After 18Z, convective activity will develop, producing
areas MVFR/IFR in CIGS/SHSN/SHRA/-TSRA, decreasing after around 04Z.
Surface winds increasing again after 18Z, W-SW 15-25 kts with gusts
30-40kts - strongest east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line.

OUTLOOK...Monday 25/12Z through Wednesday 27/12Z...Expect improving
conditions Monday morning, then scattered convective showers
redevelop by afternoon, especially along and south of the Mogollon
Rim. Heavier showers will produce brief MVFR/IFR in CIGS/SHSN/SHRA
and -TSRA. This pattern of an overnight lull and redevelopment then
repeats Monday night and into Tuesday. Daytime surface winds W-SW 15-
25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Periods of rain and snow
continue through this evening. Precipitation chances decrease
late tonight and Monday, becoming more scattered. Westerly winds
today, with gusts to 35-45 mph along/east of the Mogollon Rim. Winds
on Monday will be lighter and westerly, at 15-25 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday...Cold and unsettled weather Tuesday with a
chance of rain and snow. Drier and warmer Wednesday and Thursday.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph Tuesday
turn westerly Wednesday at 10 to 15 mph. Breezy southwest winds
return Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ004-
015-016.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ Monday for
AZZ011-017.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ012>014.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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