Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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373 FXUS63 KGLD 130945 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 345 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance for showers/thunderstorms is Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. - Monitoring potential for near critical fire weather conditions across much of the area Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Today-tonight...the center of a vertically stacked low pressure system was over south central Kansas early this morning. Through the morning hours, there will be a 20%-30% chance for light rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms east of a line from Norton to Gove due to wraparound moisture. During the afternoon hours, the forecast area is expected to be dry. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s, a mix of 850mb temperatures from the NAM/GFS/UKMET and better performing temperature guidance from the past several days. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 40s. Breezy northerly winds are anticipated today with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Tuesday-Tuesday night...an approaching upper level trough will bring increasing moisture in the 700-500mb layer into the area during the afternoon hours. This moisture, combined with some instability and sufficient low and mid level lapse rates will support 20%-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms along and west of Highway 25. During the overnight hours, shower/thunderstorm chances increase into the 40%-70% range, mainly before midnight. High temperatures rise into the upper 70s to middle 80s with low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...presently, there is a 40%-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the upper trough axis approaches from the northwest. Looking at GFS/ECMWF/NAM 850-500mb relative humidity forecasts and qpf, the GFS is the wetter of the three but still doesnt quite support such high pops. The NAM/ECMWF models are much drier with a dry slot over the area. If trends continue, pops will need to be lowered more than I have already done (removed likely mention where NBM loaded it). Overnight, the NAM/ECMWF models keep any appreciable moisture in the 850-500mb layer east and west of us while the GFS brings a wetter layer into the area. Presently, there is a 20%-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are anticipated to be in the middle 60s to middle 70s with low temperatures in the lower 40s to around 50. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Relatively quiet pattern on tap for mid May. While there will be occasional low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms, severe storms are not anticipated due to lack of any strong forcing. One system will track across the southern plains Thursday and Friday, while another one slowly develops in the Great Basin over the weekend. The local area will see shortwave ridging to begin the period which then transitions to southwest flow ahead of the western system over the weekend. Precipitation chances will mainly be tied to weak waves in the southwest flow and daytime heating toward the latter parts of the long term period. Temperatures will be near normal to start the period, but warm to above normal over the weekend. The warmest day will be Saturday with mid to upper 80s currently forecast. Do not expect any frost or freeze problems during this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind around 10kts will increase from 15z-22z from the north with gusts up to 25kts. After 23z, a northeast wind around 10kts veers to the east under 10kts by 02z, southeast then south at speeds under 10kts through the rest of the taf period. KMCK...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. Will need to watch for sub VFR cigs in the 12z-14z timeframe as stratus is within a county of the taf site. Otherwise, confidence is higher in VFR conditions through the rest of the taf period. A northwest wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the north and increase in speed with gusts in the 20-25kt range from 15z-22z. After 23z, a northeast wind around 11kts becomes light and variable after 04z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...Wekesser AVIATION...99