Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 270847
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An active monsoon pattern continues with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. A relative downtrend in storm coverage possibly
arrives Friday and Saturday as drier air moves into the area,
however, moisture values increase again Sunday and into early next
week. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a
daily concern, especially in areas where soils are saturated or near
burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Widely scattered light showers and an isolated short lived
thunderstorm or two persist early this morning but overall continue
to decrease in number. Some patchy fog has developed in the the
Moreno Valley also, and can`t rule it out elsewhere but confidence
is low for any specific spot, and it`s not likely to last very long
this morning.

Models indicate the main H5 upper high center will be located over
portions of CO/KS/NE later today and will be centered more directly
over KS on Wednesday. Water vapor imagery suggests there will be
some mid level drying over portions of eastern NM today, and a bit
moreso Wednesday with less instability forecast there. That said,
the NAM12 does bring some light precipitation into portions of the
southeast plains late tonight and early Wednesday morning so painted
some 10 percent or so pops in that area. Elsewhere, expect
convection to develop yet again over the western and northern higher
terrain by midday and initially drift slowly to the north to
northeast, although motion is expected to become more erratic as the
afternoon and evening progress, leading to potential for locally
heavy rain. Cells on Wednesday are forecast to also move slowly but
more to the northwest and west due to the shift in the high center.

Highs today and Wednesday will be within a few degrees of normal.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue through the long
term period although a relative break in the action with decreased
storm coverage perhaps arrives Friday/Saturday. By Thursday, the H5
high remains centered over Kansas and strengthens to about 597dam.
Southeasterly flow across the area keeps ample moisture in place with
PWATs forecast to remain above an inch. Models are still depicting
an easterly wave tracking westward over northern Mexico and across
the southern NM/AZ border Thursday. With increased southeasterly flow
and moisture from this wave, this may result in an increase in storm
coverage, particularly along and west of the Continental Divide
where the potential for locally heavy rainfall may also increase.

By Friday, the H5 high becomes centered over OK, and drier mid-level
air begins to filter in from the east. The high then builds over
eastern NM on Saturday, and the monsoon moisture plume becomes
focused across western NM and into AZ. This results in a dip in PWATs
across central and eastern NM with PWATs forecast to dip below an
inch at ABQ Friday night and Saturday. Models continue to be at odds
at the placement of the high early next week, but they are in
agreement with the monsoonal moisture plume redeveloping over NM and
PWATs trending back up to over an inch. This will support increased
storm coverage with daily rounds of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms. This is further supported by a backdoor cold front
entering northeast NM on Sunday which will also help to reinvigorate
storm potential Sunday and into early next week.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Forecast models indicate the main upper high center will be located
over portions of CO/KS/NE later today and will be centered more
directly over KS on Wednesday. The upper high center will continue
to sag southward this week, and by the weekend is forecast to be
located over OK and the TX panhandle.

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing wetting rain
will be focused over the northern and western mountains for much of
this week. Initially today`s cells will drift slowly in a somewhat
northerly direction, although motion will become more erratic as the
afternoon and evening progress, leading to potential for locally
heavy rain. Cells on Wednesday are forecast to also move slowly but
more to the northwest and west with the shift in the high center.
Higher chances for wetting rain return to the Northeast and East
Central Plains this weekend as the upper high center ends up just to
the east of NM.

High temperatures this week will be close to normal and lows will be
a few degrees warmer than average. Vent rates today and Wednesday
over western and northern NM will be fair to poor.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Lingering showers and isold tstms to slowly wane through 09Z. Can`t
rule out isold br between 10-15Z somewhere over nrn and central NM
but confidence low in any one spot. Upper high to be centered over
CO and KS with some drier air aloft which may push into ern NM, but
low level moisture will remain plentiful. Sct showers and tstms to
redevelop over the higher terrain by 18Z and move slowly and
erratically with the stronger storms briefly obscuring mts in MVFR
cigs/vsbys in clouds and precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  64  90  66 /  30  30  20  20
Dulce...........................  83  52  85  53 /  60  30  50  20
Cuba............................  79  57  80  58 /  50  40  40  30
Gallup..........................  84  57  85  59 /  40  30  40  30
El Morro........................  80  54  80  55 /  60  40  50  40
Grants..........................  82  56  83  57 /  60  40  40  40
Quemado.........................  83  57  82  57 /  50  30  60  40
Magdalena.......................  81  60  82  61 /  60  40  40  30
Datil...........................  80  55  80  56 /  60  40  60  40
Reserve.........................  86  60  86  58 /  50  30  60  30
Glenwood........................  88  66  88  65 /  50  20  50  20
Chama...........................  81  49  79  51 /  60  30  60  20
Los Alamos......................  81  58  82  60 /  60  40  50  30
Pecos...........................  80  56  82  58 /  60  40  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  81  50  84  47 /  60  30  50  20
Red River.......................  72  45  74  47 /  60  30  60  20
Angel Fire......................  73  45  75  45 /  60  30  50  20
Taos............................  82  53  85  53 /  60  30  50  20
Mora............................  78  52  80  52 /  60  30  50  20
Espanola........................  86  56  87  63 /  50  30  40  20
Santa Fe........................  82  58  84  61 /  50  30  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  85  59  86  59 /  50  30  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  64  87  66 /  40  30  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  66  89  67 /  40  40  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  61  91  65 /  30  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  65  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Belen...........................  91  67  92  66 /  30  30  20  30
Bernalillo......................  89  63  91  65 /  40  30  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  90  64  91  65 /  40  30  20  30
Corrales........................  90  64  90  67 /  40  40  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  91  66  91  66 /  40  30  20  30
Placitas........................  86  62  88  63 /  50  40  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  88  65  89  67 /  40  40  30  30
Socorro.........................  90  66  91  66 /  30  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  59  83  61 /  50  40  40  30
Tijeras.........................  84  61  86  62 /  50  40  40  30
Edgewood........................  83  58  85  59 /  50  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  58  86  58 /  50  30  30  30
Clines Corners..................  81  57  83  57 /  50  30  30  20
Mountainair.....................  83  58  84  59 /  40  30  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  84  59  85  59 /  40  30  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  87  64  87  64 /  40  20  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  80  58  80  57 /  50  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  84  57  86  57 /  50  30  10   5
Raton...........................  88  57  90  57 /  40  20  20  10
Springer........................  85  55  87  58 /  50  30  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  81  54  84  55 /  50  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  92  64  94  64 /  20  20   5   0
Roy.............................  89  60  90  61 /  30  20  10   5
Conchas.........................  90  63  92  66 /  20  20   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  91  65  92  65 /  30  20  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  97  68  98  68 /  10  20   0   5
Clovis..........................  93  66  93  65 /  10  10  10   5
Portales........................  94  67  94  67 /   5  10  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  95  68  95  67 /  10  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  96  69  97  70 /   5  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  88  64  89  64 /  30  10  20  10
Elk.............................  84  60  84  60 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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