Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 182023
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
As moisture values slowly increase this week, showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous each day. On Monday, a few
storms will be possible across south central and eastern areas, then
a greater uptick is expected on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will
be the most active days of the week with numerous storms expected,
some with heavy rainfall. Temperatures will trend downward through
the middle of the week thanks to the thunderstorm activity and cloud
cover. However, a drying and warming trend looks to commence once
again toward next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Despite the high cloudiness, temperatures continue to soar this
afternoon. At last check, Roswell has already reached 105 degrees,
with several more hours of heating to go. The heat advisory remains
on track through the afternoon.

Moisture that is pooling just south of the border, as evident by the
thunderstorm activity south of AZ and the NM bootheel, will start to
move northward on Monday as the upper level high begins to slide
northward. Certainly more mid level clouds are likely, but a few
storms are also possible along a low level moisture gradient in
eastern NM. As for the temperatures, they will remain quite warm with
near record temperatures likely for many places. Currently do not
think Roswell or surrounding area will reach 105 degrees, thus not
anticipating another Heat Advisory for Monday.

The low level moisture will continue to shift northwestward Tuesday,
as the mid level plume continues to shift northward as well. This
will result in an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Tuesday
afternoon. In fact, some models are also suggesting that there could
be a quick shower or thunderstorm during the morning hours Tuesday
near Albuquerque.

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look like the most active days as
the upper high rebuilds to the west, a weakness in the upper level
height field develops over NM, a back door cold front slides into NE
NM all while plenty of moisture is in place. The favored areas on
Wednesday look to be along and east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, where the extra forcing from the front could result in
locally heavy rainfall, and the southwest mountains. Outflow boundary
collisions will allow for storm coverage to spread in the evening
hours, perhaps into Albuquerque. On Thursday, high terrain areas will
be favored, with storms slowly rolling off to the south or southeast
by late day.

As the upper high continues to organize to the west of the state on
Friday and elongate out to the California coast over the weekend,
drier air will slowly filter into NM, and storms chances will
dwindle.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture levels will recover to more seasonable levels early this
week. This as southerly flow develops along the west flank of an
upper high that shifts from southwest Texas this afternoon to
Oklahoma by Tuesday. Minimum humidity values will trend upward 10 to
as much as 20 percent by Tuesday as compared to this afternoon.
Haines indices will trend downward with moderate to high values
limited to northwest areas by mid-week. The increased moisture will
bring a return to daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms;
initially to parts of eastern and southern New Mexico on Monday with
a more significant increase in shower/storm coverage expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. Ventilation will remain fair at best for
much of central and western NM. A backdoor cold front may drop south
into the northeast quarter later Wednesday per the NAM, which would
further boost storm coverage there, with additional impacts into
Thursday. However, the GFS keeps the boundary farther east with
limited impact. Models then advertise strengthening high pressure
over and west of New Mexico late week into next weekend with drying
and warming indicated. KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR mid and high level cloudiness for all TAF sites through at least
18Z Monday. A few cumulus buildups vicinity of the higher terrain
near KSRR this afternoon/early evening. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  95  56  96 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  45  90  49  89 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  53  90  58  89 /   0   0   5  20
Gallup..........................  50  90  53  92 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  48  87  52  86 /   0   5   5  10
Grants..........................  49  89  54  88 /   0   5   5  20
Quemado.........................  53  87  57  86 /   0   5   5  30
Datil...........................  58  85  58  84 /   0   5  10  40
Glenwood........................  62  93  65  93 /   0   5   5  20
Chama...........................  46  82  49  81 /   0   5   5  20
Los Alamos......................  63  86  63  83 /   0   5   5  30
Pecos...........................  57  86  59  83 /   0   5  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  83  53  81 /   0   5   5  40
Red River.......................  40  74  41  72 /   0  10  10  40
Angel Fire......................  30  79  39  77 /   0  10  10  50
Taos............................  46  87  52  83 /   0   5   5  30
Mora............................  51  84  54  81 /   0  10  10  60
Espanola........................  55  92  60  89 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Fe........................  57  87  62  84 /   0   5  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  53  90  59  86 /   0   5   5  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  93  67  87 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  94  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  95  65  90 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  94  66  89 /   0   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  58  95  62  91 /   0   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  64  94  66  90 /   0   0   5  20
Socorro.........................  66  99  67  95 /   0   5   5  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  87  59  85 /   0   5  10  30
Tijeras.........................  61  91  63  86 /   0   5  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  92  53  87 /   0   5  10  40
Clines Corners..................  57  88  59  84 /   0  10  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  63  90  61  88 /   0  10  10  50
Carrizozo.......................  66  95  67  92 /   0  10  10  50
Ruidoso.........................  57  86  58  82 /   0  20  20  50
Capulin.........................  55  91  57  87 /   0  10   5  30
Raton...........................  53  94  55  90 /   0  10   5  30
Springer........................  51  92  55  89 /   0  10   5  30
Las Vegas.......................  51  87  55  83 /   0  10  10  40
Clayton.........................  64  96  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
Roy.............................  58  92  61  88 /   0  10  10  30
Conchas.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  99  67  95 /   0  20  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  68 101  68  97 /   0  20  20  10
Clovis..........................  68  98  67  95 /   0  20  20  10
Portales........................  68  99  68  97 /   0  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  66  97  67  94 /   0  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  71 103  72 100 /   0  10  20  10
Picacho.........................  67  94  66  92 /   0  20  20  30
Elk.............................  65  91  63  88 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ538.

&&

$$

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