Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190529 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1129 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Mostly clear skies and unobstructed visibilities are in place across
northern and central New Mexico as a ridge of high pressure shifts
over the state. Light breezes will prevail overnight with a few
moderate gusts developing Friday afternoon while a few high cirrus
clouds arrive.



.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2019...
Very pleasant weather conditions are in store Friday with light
winds, sunny skies, and mild temperatures. A weak weather system
will move through northern New Mexico Saturday and spread a few
showers and thunderstorms over the area. Meanwhile, breezy southwest
winds will develop over the rest of area. Temperatures will be warm
with lots of 70s and 80s. Sunday will be even nicer with mostly
sunny skies, warmer temperatures, and breezy southwest winds.
Another storm system will move into New Mexico Monday and Tuesday
with cooler temperatures and more showers and thunderstorms.


The latest water vapor loop shows dry northwest flow in place over
NM in the wake of the storm system that brought much needed rainfall
to parts of the area. Very nice weather will remain in place over NM
through Friday with light winds, sunny skies, and mild temperatures.
The next upper level wave on tap for Saturday is moving slowly east
toward southern CA with a deep tap of subtropical moisture sliding
into the Baja region. Sufficient mid and upper level moisture along
with a 70 kt speed max shifting thru the area Saturday will lead to
scattered showers and isolated storms over northern NM. Despite
decent convective coverage, QPF amounts are advertised below 0.05"
so gusty outflows are likely to be the main impact.

The next storm system will originate from the Pacific northwest and
slide down the west coast through Sunday. Breezy southwest winds
will develop over NM in the afternoon while surface low pressure
deepens to near 996mb over the northeast plains. Temps will be above
normal for the entire area with low humidity and mostly sunny skies.

An active weather pattern will continue into next week as guidance
remains in good agreement that the west coast upper wave will become
stationary over the southern Rockies Monday and Tuesday. A moist
back door cold front will also slide southwest into eastern NM and
provide upslope flow along and east of the central mt chain. Daily
rounds of showers and storms are likely Monday and Tuesday over the
entire area with more below normal temperatures. Model PW values are
near 0.50" and WPC shows QPF amounts in the 0.25 to 0.75" over the
northern mts and parts of eastern NM.



he warming trend continues tomorrow as high pressure builds over
New Mexico, and high temperatures on Friday will be above normal for
most locations. The next chance for critical fire weather conditions
comes Saturday afternoon for portions of the northeast and east
central plains as southwest winds increase in response to a weak
system that will move across northern NM. These stronger winds
combined with well above normal temperatures and high Haines indices
could initiate a few hours of critical conditions in the
east Saturday afternoon.

A few light showers are possible across portions of northern New
Mexico on Saturday, but accumulations are expected to be light. As
Saturday`s weak system makes its exit, a stronger system on its
heels looks to impact the state early next week and offer a better
chance for wetting precipitation. West to southwest winds will
likely stay breezy on Sunday as the system approaches which could
initiate a couple hours of critical condtions, but any fire weather
concerns will be less widespread compared to Saturday. There are no
fire weather concerns Monday into Wednesday as the system makes its
way across NM thanks to expanding areas of precipitation and cooler





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