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000
FXUS65 KABQ 212122
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions are in store for the Land of Enchantment over the
next couple days. Temperatures will warm to near to above normal
temperatures by Wednesday with breezy conditions featured each
afternoon. The next significant change arrives Wednesday night and
Thursday with a storm system that will move across the Rockies. The
system will send a potent cold front through the state which will
cause temperatures to plummet. The system will even bring chances for
snow across the northern mountains. There is still a lot of
uncertainty regarding exactly how much snow and favored locations,
but 2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible across the northern high
terrain. Once that system exits, a beautiful weekend will be in store
with temperatures gradually warming to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy conditions that are ongoing across the east this
afternoon will quickly diminish once the sun sets this evening.
Otherwise, the next couple of days will be quiet for the ABQ CWA with
dry, northwest flow persisting. Temperatures will warm to near to
above normal readings by Wednesday with some breezy afternoon winds
each afternoon.

The next significant change in the forecast arrives Wednesday night
and Thursday as a storm system moves into the southern Rockies. This
system will send a potent backdoor cold front through the area
Wednesday night, causing temperatures to plummet. Thursday`s
high temperatures will be well below normal, and another round of
sub-freezing temperatures are on tap for Thursday night and Friday
morning. For areas that have not seen their first freeze of the fall,
such as portions of the ABQ metro, Socorro, and Roswell, Thursday
night will potentially put an end to that. There is still a lot of
uncertainty though regarding the strength and track of this system
which will effect precipitation and snow amounts. The GFS20 and NAM12
keep the system as an open wave that clips northeastern NM while the
ECMWF and the Canadian develop the system into a closed low that
dives south into eastern NM. As such, the latter two are more
enthusiastic with precipitation and snow accumulation. Kept the
forecast more in line with the GFS and NAM as well as WPC. Best
chance for precipitation and accumulating snow will likely occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. With below freezing surface
temperatures and 700mb temperatures of about -5.5C to -7.5C, snow
will be the favored form of precipitation. Highest snow accumulations
look to be across the northern high terrain near the CO/NM border
where generally 2-4" of snow is currently forecast with lower amounts
across the northeast.

This weekend looks to be dry as temperatures gradually warm back up
to near normal by Sunday. Early next week could become active again
with a potential system impacting northern NM.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The tail end of a speed maximum in the jet stream will gradually
shift northeast of NM tonight, resulting in much lighter winds on
Tuesday. A weaker northwest flow aloft will persist over the area
through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

GFS and ECMWF agree on an upper level trough bringing a strong cold
front and a chance for rain and snow mainly to the central mountain
chain eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night. The back door
front will produce breezy conditions on the far eastern plains
mainly Wednesday night and Thursday. There may be a few to four
inches of snow accumulation in the northern mountains near the CO
border Wednesday night and Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday
will fall around 10 to 25 degrees below Wednesday`s readings,
placing them around 5 to 22 degrees below normal.

A weakening ridge of high pressure will then traverse the southwest
US at the end of the week with warming temperatures and relatively
light winds. Winds should begin to strengthen again Sunday as an
upper level trough deepens over the Great Basin.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with occasional
thin, high clouds. Northwest winds will gust out of the northwest
around 25 to 35 KT today, with some locally higher gusts from around
Farmington to around Clines Corners. Speeds will weaken with sunset,
and there will be much lighter winds on Tuesday.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  18  60  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  28  60  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  23  66  27  68 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  25  64  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  23  65  27  68 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  30  65  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  30  65  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  40  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  18  56  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  33  60  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  30  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  22  58  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  54  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  15  56  19  58 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  16  60  24  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  21  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  28  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  32  58  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  62  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  38  64  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  39  66  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  34  68  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  67  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  32  68  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  36  66  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  37  72  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  36  59  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  35  62  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  65  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  29  62  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  33  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  38  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  36  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  23  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   5
Raton...........................  20  64  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  20  63  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  25  63  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  29  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  61  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  30  68  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  31  69  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  31  69  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  34  66  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  33  69  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  32  68  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  41  73  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  39  71  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  37  70  41  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ512-514-523.

&&

$$

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