Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180902
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
302 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

The forecast challenges today surround the potential for some very
light snow/flurries mainly across north central South Dakota, as
well as temperatures today/tonight while surface high pressure
expands southeast across the forecast area.

Currently, there continues to be a few pockets of low/mid cloudiness
mainly hugging the far western zones with higher cirrus-type clouds
over most of the CWA. Temperatures generally range from as cold as
around 5 below zero to as warm as 10 above zero on light northwest
winds. There is a stationary weakening inverted surface low pressure
trof still hanging on across north central South Dakota early this
morning as surface high pressure continues to build into the region
from the northwest.

The inverted weak surface low pressure trof is indicative of some
lingering remnant mid/upper level forcing/lift available from which
to generate cloudiness and maybe a little bit of very light
snow/flurries today across the western third of the CWA (mainly
across north central South Dakota). So, there are some 20-30 pops
still in the forecast today across said area. Otherwise, the
cold/dry surface high pressure building over the region will be the
primary weather highlight today/tonight. Short range guidance
indicates that later tonight, after the surface high pressure re-
centers further south and east across the region, low level winds
will become west-southwesterly and begin to push whatever lingering
cloudiness there may be east out of this CWA. If the west clears out
first later tonight, and cloudiness lingers over the east, the
coldest temperatures would be relegated to the western part of the
CWA, where the latest (Saturday/Sunday) snowfall event has added
anywhere from 3 to perhaps 10+ inches of fresh snowpack. Low
temperatures may not be cold enough there. Of course, all this
conjecture about how loss of clouds may impact temperatures later
tonight becomes moot, if the next system in the pipeline begins to
spread its higher up mid/high clouds into the CWA from the
southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

A couple rounds of accumulating snow will be possible during the
long term portion of the forecast. The first round of snow will
occur from the late afternoon hours on Tuesday through the afternoon
hours on Wednesday. While the heaviest snowfall should occur east of
this CWA, areas east of the James River will have the potential of
seeing 2 to 5 inches with this system. Blowing snow should not be an
issue as winds will be rather light.

High pressure over the region Wednesday night through Thursday night
will bring dry conditions to the area. Another storm system will
impact the region Friday/Friday night with accumulating snow
expected for most areas. Based on current model guidance, the
highest snowfall amounts should occur east of the James River
Valley in this CWA.

A more significant snow storm could be possible Saturday night
through Sunday per the 0Z GFS and ECMWF. Both of these models are
showing the potential for heavy snow and strong northerly winds,
especially in the eastern half of the CWA. The 0Z Canadian and
Germany`s ICON model are much further east with the weekend storm
system with no impact expected. The 12Z ECMWF also favored a
further east solution. While a significant winter storm is likely
this weekend, forecaster confidence on potential impacts in this
CWA are low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight.
Ceilings are expected to become lower on Monday mainly in the
MVFR/low VFR range at all airports.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr


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