Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 172322 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
622 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

An upper level low pressure trough out west will make its way east
across the region tonight through Friday night along with a surface
Pacific cool front. Not much lift or moisture with this system so
expect mainly mid and high level clouds to continue to stream over
the region through Friday night. Although, some sprinkles or light
rain may fall Friday afternoon across parts of the north. It will be
mild tonight with steady south to southeast breezes at 10 to 20 mph
with lows in the 40s. The Pacific front coming through will bring
winds to the northwest with breezy winds on Friday at 15 to 25 mph.
Highs will be little cooler mainly in the 60s on Friday afternoon
with the clouds and weak caa. The clouds will move east with the
upper trough and surface front Friday night with steady west breezes
mainly under 10 mph with lows around 40 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

The main item of interest in the extended period is the strong low
pressure system moving across the region Sunday and Monday. Models
are in decent agreement on track and timing, and it does still
appear this will be mostly a rain producer. Late Sunday night into
Monday morning thermal profiles across central SD do cool enough to
support snow, with minor accumulations possible. Total rainfall with
this system could certainly exceed an inch for many locations.
Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder as well, so will include
mention of this Sunday afternoon and evening across the eastern CWA.
The wind will be a big story with this system, especially Sunday
night through Monday. Leaned towards CONSMOS once again for wind

Eyes will also be on a potential clipper system for Wednesday night
and Thursday of next week. Latest EC runs have been showing a pretty
potent wave with decent amounts of snow and wind associated with it.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through the taf valid period at all




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