Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240004 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
704 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Main challenge in the short term period is precipitation chances.
Upper level ridging will continue to get pushed east tonight by an
approaching shortwave trough, which will track over the area
Saturday afternoon and night. At the surface, the region is
currently between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the
west. Current models have backed off on the chances for
precipitation tonight into the day Saturday due to the shortwave and
better dynamics remaining well to the west of the CWA. Will keep the
tonight into Saturday morning period dry. Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night look iffy as well with better CAPE and shear staying
west, but with moisture getting pulled into the region in
association with the shortwave moving overhead, feel at least small
POPs are warranted.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s, with high
temperatures on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s. Lows on Saturday
night will again be in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Still looking at good rain chances Sunday afternoon into the
nighttime hours as a frontal boundary crosses the region. Mid level
shortwave trough passes through the Dakotas as well. Could be a few
strong to perhaps severe storms, mainly where the best surface
convergence resides along the frontal boundary. Best instability
will be over the western CWA Sunday afternoon, with more stable air
throughout the evening further east in the CWA.

Added some CONSMOS influence for wind speeds Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday during the daytime periods. Models in good agreement during
these periods in having a decent pressure gradient over us, so felt
leveraging a more "breezier/windier" model gave some value to the
forecast for those days.

Otherwise, no major changes to the extended period. Things look
relatively quiet next week - at least thus far in the models.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Mostly VFR cigs now remain across central South Dakota
(KPIR/KMBG). So, VFR conditions to start for all four terminals
will eventually be replaced with another solid deck of MVFR cigs
later tonight at KPIR and KMBG, and probably at KABR by 15Z
Saturday as well. KATY could possibly see a few hours of sub-VFR
stratus by later morning/early afternoon on Saturday as well.
KABR/KATY look to rebound back to VFR conditions by mid-late
afternoon on Saturday, but KPIR/KMBG may still be flirting with
2500-3500agl cigs even at the end of the TAF valid period. Vsbys
should be VFR through the entire TAF period. Gusty south-southeast
winds will diminish some overnight before picking back up again
after sunrise Saturday.




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