Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 191118
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 AM AKDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The main impacts across northern Alaska will continue to be the
strong easterly winds along the eastern Arctic coast. High
pressure across the Beaufort Sea and Arctic and the leeside trough
over the Brooks Range will persist into Sunday. The tight pressure
gradient between these features has been the driving force for
the strong winds along the eastern Arctic coast. The strong winds
will begin to diminish this evening to the west of Prudhoe Bay and
on Sunday to the East of Prudhoe Bay as the leeside trough starts
to break down. Generally quiet weather elsewhere with a few snow
showers across the eastern Brooks Range and the Fortymile Country,
and perhaps a few along parts of the West Coast.

Aloft...at 500 hPa...models continue to be in good agreement with
a 541 dam blocking high pressure center currently over the
Beaufort Sea, that will drift very slowly eastward to the eastern
Beaufort Sea by Sunday. Broad low pressure over the Bering Sea
will persist in place through the weekend, with multiple weak
shortwaves moving across the West Coast as the low rotates
generally in place. Weak upper level ridging will persist over the
Interior through the weekend. Sunday afternoon and Monday, weak
low pressure will develop over the North Slope, with current model
runs indicating this feature will strengthen and move north over
the Beaufort Sea around the middle of next week.

Surface...A broad area of high pressure across the Beaufort Sea
and Arctic will drift slowly east through the weekend. A surface
trough extends from roughly Demarcation Point southwest into the
eastern Brooks Range, with weak troughing over the Interior. A 988
mb low over the Bering Sea will gradually weaken in place through
Sunday. A shortwave trough will rotate around this low, impacting
the YK Delta on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range: A tight surface pressure gradient
between high pressure in the Beaufort and Arctic and a low
pressure trough in the eastern Brooks Range will bring continued
strong easterly winds to the eastern Arctic coast and the near
shore waters through Sunday. The strongest winds will continue
through late this evening with gusts to 55 mph possible,
especially from Prudhoe Bay to Barter Island. Strong wind
headlines remain in place for Zones 202, 203, and 204 (from just
west of Utqiagvik east to Demarcation Point) through this evening
for areas west of Prudhoe Bay and the Strong Wind Headlines remain
in effect for the Bartar Island area through Sunday morning. As
the high pressure drifts east and the trough weakens, winds will
begin to diminish significantly this evening to the west of
Prudhoe Bay. Winds will continue to decrease on Sunday especially
to the east of Prudhoe Bay.

West Coast and Western Interior: A couple of weak troughs
extending from an area of low pressure over the central Bering Sea
will bring periods of snow flurries and snow showers to the West
Coast today. A front rotating around the low will approach the
lower YK Delta on Sunday with only minor snowfall accumulations
expected.

Central and Eastern Interior: Weak high pressure will continue
through early next week with occasional weak disturbances moving
through the area with mostly cloudy skies and occasional snow
flurries. Across the far southeast Interior, a low pressure
trough extending approximately from Eagle to Tok and into the
Alaska Range will bring snow showers to the area today and will
move north into the Eastern Brooks Range on Sunday. Along the
summits east of the Dalton Highway, snow showers are expected in
association with the leeside trough through the eastern Brooks
Range and into central and southern Interior with the Dalton
Highway seeing a couple of inches of accumulating snow through
Sunday. By mid- week, winds are expected to increase especially
over highway summits as model guidance continues to show a
tightening pressure gradient in response to a strong low pressure
system moving into Bristol Bay. Gusty gap winds are expected to
develop along the Alaska Range as strong winds aloft produce a
strong lee side trough along the northern foothills of the Alaska
Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Long term models continue
to indicate increasing north to northeasterly winds through the
Bering Strait during the middle of next week. If this develops,
there may be some elevated surf along the Diomede and Shishmaref
coastlines.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 19



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