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FXAK67 PAJK 232238
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night/...A
little bit of everything was observed in the weather across
Southeast Alaska today, including snow, rain, gales force winds,
strong wind gusts over land, small hail, and thunderstorms.
All of this was courtesy of an extremely cold airmass at 850mb
that is much more typical of conditions in the dead of winter
rather than mid way through Spring.

The short term forecast will feature deep layer onshore flow with
three or more surface troughs moving across the area from west to
east. Unsettled weather will continue in the form of rain and snow
showers, more thunderstorm activity, and near normal to below
normal temperatures. Small craft southerly winds over Lynn Canal
and strong wind gusts in Haines and Skagway will diminish later
this evening, as will the near gale force westerlies at Cape
Spencer.

By Wednesday night, the next front will be crossing the gulf from
west to east. Model agreement on the placement and track of both
the parent low as well as the front remains below average but is
better in the afternoon models than it was in the morning set. At
this time, it seems likely that the front will not arrive along
the outer coast until sometime Thursday morning, but confidence
in the timing is poor for the reasons mentioned already.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...As of 10 pm Monday. An
old parent low will continue to weaken as it moves from the
western gulf near Kodiak Island to southwest of Prince of Wales
Island merging with a another small low in the central gulf and
slide SE past Haida Gwaii Island early Saturday. Rainfall totals
through the end of the week are not overly heavy through Friday
night will less than inch expected so far at this time.

As the low moves south of the panhandle late Friday into Saturday
the higher pressure over the Alaskan Interior and northwest
Canada will start to end the showers and start a clearing trend.
The operational model solutions ( GFS and EC ) are hinting at
possibly a strengthening ridge over the central gulf from the WPC
solution made earlier Monday. The result of this is a blocking
feature over the gulf leaving SEAK in drier pattern.

High temperatures got a minor nudge up this weekend and into the
start of the next week with a drier and possibly less cloudy
pattern. Overall we made only small adjustments to the forecast is
place.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ018-019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-043-053.

&&

$$

Fritsch/Bezenek

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