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000
FXUS63 KARX 270830
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

HEAT: the heat/humidity continues through Wed, with some relief
coming Thu as upper level trough works to force the hottest air
south/back west.

Wed still shaping up to be the hottest day of the two, with models
consistent in tipping more of the heat buried under the western
ridge eastward. NAM by far the most aggressive with 925 mb temps
upwards of +33 C (potential for record sfc temps in that scenario).
The GFS is 4 degrees cooler with the EC a couple ticks below that.
The NAM/GFS have been trending too warm of late and tempering back
their aggressiveness is warranted. Dewpoints also looking too high in
the NAM (mid/upper 70s)...with lower 70s more reasonable. End result
in afternoon heat indices topping out in the mid/upper 90s today,
looking to reach/exceed 100 for Wed. If temps and/or dewpoints just a
degree or two higher Wed, +105 F could be reached.

Per coordination with surroundings offices, won`t issue any heat
related headlines at this time. That said, will need at least an
Advisory for a good chunk of the area Wed afternoon, not ruling out
the potential for a warning.


TODAY/TONIGHT STORM CHANCES: ongoing convection across northern WI
will make some progress southward early this morning, following the
CAPE gradient and nose of the low level jet. Convection should be on
the wane though as the jet decreases/shifts east and storms shift
out of the instability gradient.

However, the storms will leave an outflow boundary, which should
mingle/merge with the current sfc front laying up across northern
mn/northern wi. Where this sits later this afternoon will be key for
convective possibilities with "fat" CAPE profiles via RAP soundings
providing plenty of punch for storms/updrafts. However, same
soundings point to warmer low layers (CAP) to inhibit convection -
so need a kicker that sfc boundary could/would provide. After the
early morning storms, the CAMS aren`t very enthusiastic over
convective until early evening - suggesting they think the CAP will
win out and/or not enough convergence. Think there will be enough
forcing to trigger at least some isolated storms, moreso closer to
00z. Where? Not sure we will have a good idea on that until after
the morning convection is over. Probably closer to I-90 northward.

IF storms get going, there will be a strong/severe risk. Ample CAPE
while decent 0-6 km/0-3 km shear for storm organization. Large hail
potential, but locally damaging winds could occur too (dry sub cloud
layer via soundings).


WED STORM CHANCES: while today has questions in where/if storms will
get going after early this morning, Wed showing much more promise in
the likelihood for storms along with severe potential.

First, weak ripple in the upper level flow and the low level jet
look to spark storms across the dakotas late tonight, diving
southeast (likely along the western portions of the sfc front),
taking aim at southeast MN after 12z-ish Wed morning. MUCAPE axis
around 1000 J/kg to help perk up the storms. Storms should still be
elevated as the approach, and a few could be strong with some small
hail threat.

Second, another piece of shortwave energy (and a bit stronger)
slated to slide across northern/northern Wi for Wed afternoon with
associated sfc low pushing into WI. Punchy 850 mb jet/moisture
transport will work into and across the still linger warm front in
the afternoon. Plenty of instability with stronger wind shear (50
kts 0-6km) compared to the morning would bring a higher threat for
severe storms...with a multitude of severe risks, including
tornadoes. Where the high threat lays out will depend on what occurs
in the morning along with the track of the shortwave/low/warm front.
So, nothing clear cut as of yet. Most models currently support
holding the higher threat along/north-east of I-94...and this looks
reasonable at this time. That`s not set in stone though either. It`s
a period of keep a close eye on.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Main forecast concerns are mainly temperatures Wednesday night
through Monday. Upper level trough digs over the northeastern United
States/Upper Great Lakes Region through the period. This allows for
northerly flow aloft to occur over the forecast area and advect
cooler air into the region. The 27.00z GFS/ECMWF show 925mb
temperatures of plus 17 to plus 20 degrees celsius by 00z Monday and
26.12z NAEFS standard anomalies are around -1 degree below normal.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly below to near normal
through the period. High temperatures will be in the 70s to middle
80s. A couple of weak impulses embedded in the northerly flow aloft
will provide periodic small chances for showers/storms Thursday
night into Monday. Confidence in timing of each individual impulse
is low. Much of the period will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Main challenge for the next 24 hours is outflow from current
line/further convection across northeast MN/northern WI and how it
interacts with existing sfc front helping to spawn the
showers/storms. How far south it dips will govern where the storm
chances for later Tue afternoon/evening are. Not clear at this
moment...and will have to be closely monitored.

Cigs: as for now, looking at VFR conditions with a favored period of
BKN for the morning hours of Tue. Afternoon cu field could become
BKN, especially if front close to the TAF sites. Have opted to leave
SCT for now.

WX/vsby: going to side with keeping convective threat north of
KLSE/KRST for now, per what the latest CAM models suggest. Again, a
lot is uncertain when it comes to where that boundary will lay. Will
closely monitor, update as needed.

Winds: mostly southerly through the day on Tue, with a weaker sfc
pressure gradient. Trends favor a swing to more southeast, staying
light Tue night.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...Rieck