Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
403 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Today, very hot temperatures are expected during the day, with
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm possible at night. Upper level
ridge of high pressure will shift eastward today bringing abundant
warm air across the region. The result will be another hot day
with many areas seeing max temperatures in the low 100s. A
developing surface low will bring a southeast flow today,
increasing dewpoints for some areas. The overall result will be
heat index values over 100 degrees for many areas. Thus the Heat
Advisory continues for much of western and central ND along with
the southern James River Valley. Some consideration was given for
a north and north eastern expansion. Here temperatures could be in
the upper 90s to low 100s with high heat indexes as well.
Temperatures in these areas would have to be closer to the 75th
percentile for heat advisory levels, which was blended in for
high temps today. Given the uncertainty, held off for the time
being and will continue to monitor for any upward trends. Ridging
will cap the atmosphere for the afternoon bringing dry conditions.
Fire weather danger may be slightly increased today, especially
in the west and central, although winds will be below critical

Tonight, a surface low further develops bringing a strengthening
low level jet to the area. This combined with a weak warm front
could tap into some elevated instability and bring some isolated
thunderstorms. There are some capping issues to overcome, and
shear looks modest at best. At this time severe weather is not
expected, although gusty winds and perhaps some hail is possible.
Otherwise look for mild low temperatures tonight, with some areas
remaining in the 70s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Slightly cooler, yet still warm, temperatures can be expected
through the weekend along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
at times.

Wednesday sees a weak and mainly dry cold front move across the
state. This could bring some breezy winds out of the northwest and
slightly cool temperatures into the upper 80s to upper 90s. Dry
air behind this front and limited instability will see this front
be a mainly dry front. Behind this front will see northwest flow
aloft and surface ridging moving in from Canada. This could bring
more cooler temperatures, although 80s to low 90s can still be
expected through Friday. The unsettled flow aloft could bring an
isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat each day, with the
better chances right now coming in the west and north.

This weekend then sees an upper level ridge build back in across
the region. The result will be more dry and warm conditions.
Thickness values do not appear to be as extreme as the current
ridge, with temperatures generally in the 80s to 90s for the
weekend. A slight shift in the ridge could bring some chances for
thunderstorms in the west on Monday, with continued above average
temperatures expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period, with mainly dry
conditions and only FEW to SCT high clouds also expected. Light
easterly winds tonight will become south southeasterly on Tuesday,
with perhaps a light breeze in the afternoon. Tuesday evening
through Tuesday night could see an isolated thunderstorm, although
confidence is too low to include at this time. A few observations
across the state may continue to show slightly lower visibility
(6-10 miles) due to smoke.


Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-



LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.