Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190222
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
822 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Temperatures have already fallen to around 15 below zero over
portions of southwest ND this evening. Skies have cleared across
most of the southwest and south central. Lowered temperatures
across these areas. Otherwise no significant changes to the going
forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 543 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Made some minor adjustment to sky cover and kept some scattered
flurries going through early this evening. Otherwise no
significant changes to the going forecast. No changes to the
current Wind Chill Advisory. Updated text products will be sent
shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 356 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Shortwave moving through weak cyclonic flow is producing some
light flurry activity over southwest/ south central ND and along
the International border. Will add a mention of some flurries
through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Very cold wind chills highlight the short term forecast.

The 12z iterations of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF depict a large 1038 mb
surface high centered over the Northern Plains this evening into
tomorrow. It appears light and variable surface winds this evening
will transition to a more steady southwesterly flow overnight as
the surface high moves southeast. Expect sustained winds between 5
and 10 kts tonight. With the NBM and MOS guidance suggesting
overnight lows in the teens below zero, very cold wind chills will
become a concern tonight and into tomorrow morning. There is
still some uncertainty regarding cloud cover tonight. In general,
the latest model guidance has had too much cloud cover today.
Latest satellite observations show thin high clouds across western
and central North Dakota early this afternoon, with skies slowly
trying to clear out from the southwest. Therefore, skies are
trending towards gradual clearing for tonight, especially across
western North Dakota. This should help temperatures drop...
possibly even lower than what is currently being forecast.

Given the cold temperatures and 5 to 10 kt sustained winds
tonight, a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for all of western
and central North Dakota from 06z this evening through 16z
tomorrow morning for wind chills to 30 below zero. Temperatures
should be able to warm into the upper single digits to the mid
teens tomorrow afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

The continuation of below average temperatures with a mainly dry
weather pattern highlights the long term forecast.

The 12z GFS/EURO show the development of a Colorado low on
Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow to much of the Northern
Plains. With that being said, the current storm track continues to
be too far south and east for North Dakota to be significantly
affected thanks to the upper level jet stream being located well
to our south. Nevertheless, it appears south central and eastern
North Dakota will be on fringes of the area of snowfall located
on the northwest quadrant of the surface cyclone. The latest blend
of model guidance gives the southern James River Valley between
half an inch and 1 inch of snow on Wednesday. Western North Dakota
and the vast majority of central North Dakota look to stay dry and
mostly cloudy. Temperatures on Wednesday will make a run for 20
degrees across much of southern North Dakota.

High temperatures on Thursday through Monday look to be
consistently in the teens for most areas as southwest flow aloft
dominates. Expect overnight lows in the single digits below zero
to the single digits above zero. A weak shortwave aloft will move
across northern North Dakota on Thursday, bringing just enough
forcing for some very light snow to the north. Only a trace of
snow is expected at this time.

The weekend looks mainly dry across western and central North
Dakota as the main storm track remains to our south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 818 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z forecast period.
Light and variable winds tonight. Southerly 5 to 10 knots on
Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 10
AM CST /9 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TWH



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