Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be weather
associated with a strong storm system impacting western and
central North Dakota late tonight through Monday night.

Currently, embedded wave over northwest Minnesota pushing east,
with only a few lingering mid level clouds across northern areas
of the state. Westerly mixing winds and plenty of sunshine giving
us one more nice day with afternoon temperatures currently in the
50s across western and central ND.

S/WV trough will push east-southeast across the Rockies this
evening, triggering lee side cyclogenesis and closing off over
the high plains of Wyoming later tonight. As this occurs,
increasing cloud cover tonight with chances for rain developing
southwest overnight. Models have trended a tad slower with the
onset of rain and earlier made this tweak in the forecast with a
relatively dry boundary layer initially in place Sunday morning.
As a strong jet streak rounds the base of the upper low, forcing
increases after 12-15Z Sun and this is when we expect a moderate
band of rain to start pushing north into south central ND and
eventually developing east into the James River Valley. POPs were
increased for those areas, while we decreased northwest where
nothing is now expected. Precipitation (mainly rain with some snow
possibly mixing in on the back side) continues central and
especially east Sunday night as the stacked low starts to lift
northeast into Minnesota. Low continues northeast on Monday into
northern MN and will see rain chances ending from west to east
across our region by Mon eve at the latest.

Uncertainty remains still on how much QPF the forecast area will
receive. Models continue to flip flop, but it does appear the
heavier rainfall (1 1.5") will occur across the south central and
over much if not the entire James River Valley (where rain is not
welcome right now). GEFS plumes have converged with QPF, but still
a rather large spread of around half an inch.

Wind will also be an issue. As the low becomes more vertically
stacked and propagates first east and then north, expect winds to
increase along with a tightening pressure gradient as the center
of the low moves through central Minnesota. Winds will be
strongest in the south on Sunday, sustained at 20-25 mph and
gusting up to 35 mph. These will increase on Monday primarily in
the James River Valley and central North Dakota, with sustained
winds up to 30-35 mph and gusting up to 50 mph. Will continue to
mention this in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

A northwest flow regime will be in place through much of the work
week, followed by an interesting possible end to the week Friday
and Saturday.

Weak area of surface high pressure is projected to be over the
Dakotas Tuesday in the wake of our late weekend storm. Expect
mainly quiet weather with seasonal temperatures in the mid 40s to
lower 50s, though still breezy east.

Strong embedded wave and associated sfc low will quickly move into
and through the Northern Plains Tuesday night-early Wed, bringing
a shot of rain or snow and dragging a cold front south across the
local area. An uptick in winds and cooler temperatures for
Wednesday behind this wave. Some light snow accumulations also
possible, though nothing impactful expected at this time.

Another quiet day for Thursday with sfc high pressure building
across the region. Upper level ridge will be building into the
Pacific Northwest Thursday, then into the Northern Plains/south
central Canada for Friday as it is pushed east by a strong S/WV
moving into western Canada. Mild weather will be possible for
western and central ND for Friday, depending on the timing of WAA
associated with the ridge. GFS waits till Friday night, while the
EC is faster with the arrival of warmer mid level air during the
day Fri. Both models then bring a strong cold front across our
area on Saturday as the aforementioned wave continues east across
southern Canada and closes off. Much uncertainty with this feature
though a cold FROPA looks likely.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Rain will start
developing over southwest ND late tonight, and south central ND
after 12Z. Right now KBIS will see the best chance for rain this
TAF period, after 15Z. Ceilings will remain VFR for southern
terminals through the period, dropping to MVFR for KBIS-KJMS
after 18Z.




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